{
  "id": 2127875,
  "title": "Riksbank: Early-2027 hike view – Nomura",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/20/riksbank-early-2027-hike-view-nomura",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-08-20T12:01:43.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/riksbank-early-2027-hike-view-nomura-202608201201"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Nomura's European Economics team, comprising Josie Anderson, George Buckley, and Andrzej Szczepaniak, recently examined the Riksbank's decision to maintain the policy rate at 1.75%. They noted the Bank's steady economic outlook, heightened vigilance towards potential upside inflation risks, and the possibility of a rate increase later in 2026. Nomura anticipates that the CPIF ex-energy inflation will surpass expectations and expects a policy rate hike in March 2027. In June, the policy rate projection reaches 1.82% in Q4 2026, increasing to 2.00% in Q4 2027. The team maintains that the probability of a rate increase later this year remains, despite recent inflation surprises and low headline rate of CPIF inflation. They forecast that CPIF ex-energy inflation will increase at a slightly faster pace than the Riksbank's latest forecast, averaging 1.2% year-over-year in Q1 2027 before accelerating to 2.4% in Q2 2027 due to the base effects from the April 2026 halving of food VAT. Even though Riksbank policymakers will continue to disregard the temporary tax and fiscal measures, the team believes that the prospect of above-target inflation may influence the decision to raise the policy rate, especially if the economic growth remains robust. They currently expect no change in the policy rate this year, as headline inflation remains low.",
  "summary": "Nomura’s European Economics team, led by Josie Anderson, George Buckley and Andrzej Szczepaniak, reviews the latest Riksbank decision to keep the policy rate at 1.75%.",
  "key_points": [
    "Nomura expects Riksbank to raise policy rate in March 2027",
    "CPIF ex-energy inflation to exceed expectations, accelerate in Q2 2027",
    "Analysts maintain slight chance of rate increase this year"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}