{
  "id": 20115898,
  "title": "Middle power aspirations",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/15/middle-power-aspirations",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-11-15T04:28:43.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Dawn",
    "slug": "dawn",
    "url": "https://www.dawn.com/news/2044655/middle-power-aspirations"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "As the global order transitions from a unipolar to a more fragmented multipolar system, middle powers have emerged as strategic players of significant importance. These nations play crucial roles as diplomatic mediators and economic stabilizers, ensuring the smooth functioning of the international system amidst great-power disputes. Unlike hegemonic powers, middle powers refrain from aggressive ambitions and excel at mediating conflicts, forming agile coalitions, and maintaining open trade routes amidst rival blocs. They are instrumental in preventing a complete bipolarization of the international system between the United States and China.\n\nHowever, there is a lack of consensus among scholars and policymakers regarding the precise criteria for middle power status. This is primarily due to the diverse nature of influence exhibited by different states. Some middle powers, like South Korea and Australia, achieve this designation through robust high-tech economies and extensive global trade integration. In contrast, others, such as Norway and Qatar, leverage niche diplomacy and active mediation to showcase their influence despite their geographic limitations. Türkiye and Pakistan, on the other hand, rely heavily on their formidable military capabilities and regional security projection.\n\nScholars generally assess middle power status across three core pillars: military capability, diplomatic outreach, and overall national strength. National strength is primarily defined by sustainable economic vitality and technological adaptation. In recent years, Pakistan has shown remarkable progress in the first two areas, regaining global strategic relevance in the process. However, its third and most crucial pillar, economic strength, remains weak, casting doubt over Pakistan's status as an emerging middle power.\n\nFor a nation to be considered a credible middle power, it must possess the military capacity to defend its sovereignty and project stabilizing influence across its region. Pakistan has demonstrated this capability through its assertive hard power during conflicts and through strategic defense partnerships. Yet, it must also prioritize domestic economic growth to become a truly resilient middle power. Hard power and clever statecraft cannot substitute for solid economic foundations. The recent conflict between Pakistan and India in 2025, which lasted a mere four days, highlighted Pakistan's modern warfare capabilities and aerial superiority. This victory in a multi-domain confrontation helped Islamabad assert its deterrence and achieve a swift ceasefire.\n\nFollowing this conflict, Pakistan utilized its newfound military credibility to forge a network of security pacts across the Middle East and Muslim world. In September 2025, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement, while in August 2026, they joined Türkiye in signing the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement. These agreements not only created a formal collective deterrence network but also bolstered Pakistan's strategic significance in the Gulf region. Moreover, Pakistan's Badr agreement with Türkiye, Qatar, and Indonesia further enhanced its position as a key security provider for the Arab Gulf states.\n\nBeyond its military prowess, Pakistan has distinguished itself through niche diplomacy. When direct US-Israeli military hostilities against Iran erupted in early 2026, traditional Gulf mediators faced challenges in maintaining their channels. Pakistani diplomat, however, adopted a posture of active neutrality and stepped into the void, playing the role of a primary conduit to Tehran. This led to historic Islamabad peace talks in April 2026 and the subsequent June MoU that temporarily reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Despite recent strains in the truce, Pakistani leadership continues to facilitate proposals between Washington, Tehran, and European capitals.\n\nDespite these military and diplomatic achievements, Pakistan's economic weaknesses remain a critical concern. The nation continues to struggle with structural deficits in its third pillar of national strength. Macroeconomic indicators have shown stabilization in 2025-26, with inflation remaining between 7-9% and GDP growth reaching 3.7%. However, underlying growth remains weak, hindered by low investment levels, deindustrialization, and high energy costs. Foreign investors are reluctant to engage due to security concerns in Balochistan and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions, as well as unrest in Azad Jammu and Kashmir. The privatization process is slow, and political consensus over reforms for new provinces remains elusive. With a low tax-to-GDP ratio and high external debt servicing, Pakistan's state solvency continues to rely heavily on remittances, multilateral bailouts, and bilateral rollovers, rather than productive capital formation.\n\nIn conclusion, Pakistan exemplifies an asymmetric emerging middle power. Its disciplined military and seasoned diplomatic corps have allowed it to leverage regional crises to earn a seat at high-stakes global tables. However, its geopolitical leverage, built on security crises and external rent, is inherently transactional. When regional wars subside or great powers regain their focus, Pakistan's economic vulnerabilities may undermine its ability to maintain its strategic influence. To truly become an emerging middle power, Pakistan must prioritize the development of its domestic economy, ensuring sustainable growth and economic stability.",
  "summary": "AS the global order shifts away from unipolarity toward fragmented multipolarity, middle powers have gained unprecedented strategic weight. In a fragmented multipolar world, middle powers serve as indispensable diplomatic bridges and economic shock absorbers that keep the international system functioning despite great-power paralysis. Middle powers lack hegemonic ambitions, and retain the…",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}