{
  "id": 20112228,
  "title": "Bitcoin Faces Final Capitulation Risk: Could $40,000 Be Next?",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/15/bitcoin-faces-final-capitulation-risk-could-40-000-be-next",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-11-15T04:00:57.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Benzinga",
    "slug": "benzinga",
    "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/26/11/63276093/bitcoin-faces-final-capitulation-ris-could-40000-be-next"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $70,000 this week, with Ethereum (ETH) dropping 4% and XRP (XRP) hovering around $1. Benjamin Cowen, in his latest Into The Cryptoverse analysis, suggests the cryptocurrency may be entering its final bear-market phase after U.S. midterm elections. Cowen cites historical patterns from 2014, 2018, and 2022, where Bitcoin experienced significant sell-offs before reaching a cycle bottom. He believes the current decline could mirror these trends, potentially bottoming out in December or early January. Cowen points out that Bitcoin's inability to maintain $83,000 on weekly closes indicates the earlier breakout was likely a false signal, not the start of a new bull market. He warns that Bitcoin's 200-week moving average might break, potentially leading to a 30% drop, similar to declines in 2015 and 2020, bringing prices down to around $40,000. Cowen identifies several indicators suggesting the bear-market reset isn't complete: Bitcoin's price is still above its aggregate cost basis, the MVRV Z-score is above zero, on-chain risk is near historical lows, and social risk is at late-2018 levels. He suggests the Fed's December meeting could be a key trigger for Bitcoin's final capitulation, drawing comparisons to its 2018 cycle bottom. A hawkish Fed stance might lead to further selling, potentially resetting on-chain valuations and setting the stage for a stronger recovery in 2027. If the market instead forms a higher low, it could leave unresolved market excesses, raising the risk of another downturn around August or September 2027. Holding the 200-week moving average through year-end might bolster the bullish outlook.",
  "summary": "Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) slipped below $70,000 this trading week, Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) fell 4%, while XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) held near $1 — the potential final capitulation phase before reaching a four-year cycle bottom, according to Benjamin Cowen In his latest Into The Cryptoverse analysis, the analyst highlighted Bitcoin’s historical tendency to experience sharp selloffs following U.S. midterm…",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}