{
  "id": 19686,
  "title": "Will US or China win the next war? That’s the wrong question to ask",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/07/31/will-us-or-china-win-the-next-war-thats-the-wrong-question-to-ask",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-07-31T21:30:06.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Reuters Business via SCMP",
    "slug": "reuters-business-via-scmp",
    "url": "https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3362476/will-us-or-china-win-next-war-thats-wrong-question-ask"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The cover of the latest Foreign Affairs magazine asks the question, \"Will US or China win the next war?\" This question is deemed problematic, as the article delves into the US-China military and technological rivalry, highlighting the clash of strategic philosophies between the US-led order and China's worldview. The article's contributors emphasize the deeply ingrained Western strategic tradition, which maintains the United States must retain its primacy to uphold global stability, democracy, and power. According to lead essayist Paul Scharre, new technologies such as drones, artificial intelligence (AI), and robotics pose a threat to America's traditional air and naval power and enable states like Iran to engage in asymmetric warfare, which diminishes US hard and soft power. Former US Pacific commander Admiral Dennis Blair contends that China's military expansion is not defensive but aimed at overturning the status quo in East Asia, and he suggests using US alliances, forward deployments, and technological leadership to maintain regional stability. The article draws on land-based \"heartland\" (introduced by British geographer Halford Mackinder) and coast-based \"rimland\" (developed by Dutch-American political scientist Nicholas Spykman) strategic views to frame the US-China contest as an age-old struggle between established maritime powers reinforcing their positions against land-based revisionists. The article argues that the \"autocratic axis\" is united more by resentment of US dominance than ideology, while the democratic coalition is fragmented by competing interests and differing views on engaging Beijing. Chinese strategic thought, rooted in Sun Tzu's The Art of War and contemporary Chinese statecraft, perceives the contest as a return to a global balance after five centuries of Western dominance. Western strategic thinkers see the conflict in zero-sum terms, where either the US maintains its primacy or China imposes an authoritarian model on the region. In contrast, Chinese statecraft aims for a more nuanced systems approach that values winning without fighting, shaping perceptions, and leveraging over brute force, striking a balance through soft and hard power. Westerners prioritize fast, technologically advanced, and decisive actions, while Chinese strategists adopt a more complex, dialectical approach that considers various actors, natural disasters, and random events. The article emphasizes that the US, investing heavily in AI, computing power, and technology, searches for a \"silver bullet\" to eliminate revisionist rivals, while Iranians and Chinese have learned from past conflicts that understanding the countryside and the masses is crucial to eroding elite impatience. Ultimately, the article suggests that the contest is about strategic patience, the best and brightest versus the mass scaler and the cheapest, and that the future world order should accommodate multiple power perspectives to prevent conflict and address global threats such as climate change, excessive resource depletion, and injustices.",
  "summary": "Who will win the next war? That is the question posed on the cover of the latest Foreign Affairs magazine which explores, among other things, the US-China military and technological rivalry. At its core is a clash of strategic philosophies between the US-led order and China’s world view, which has propelled the latter’s rise to the world’s second great power. The magazine’s contributors reflect a…",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 2,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "South China Morning Post",
        "title": "China’s next export is the world’s factory itself",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/01/chinas-next-export-is-the-worlds-factory-itself",
        "published": "2026-08-01T21:30:07.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}