{
  "id": 19671830,
  "title": "History Says This Is the Smartest ETF to Buy During the Next Bear Market",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/12/history-says-this-is-the-smartest-etf-to-buy-during-the-next-bear",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-11-12T15:30:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Motley Fool",
    "slug": "motley-fool",
    "url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/11/12/history-says-this-is-smartest-etf-to-buy-during/?source=iedfolrf0000001"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The S&P 500 index suffered a 37% decline in 2008 and a 26.5% rebound in 2009. Investors who held through both years still lost 20.3% after reinvesting dividends, underscoring the importance of the price paid during a bear market. For those considering an ETF during the next bear market without needing to predict sector outperformance, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) is a potential option. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF mirrors the S&P 500, which entered a bear market in July 2008, eventually losing 56.8% from its October 2007 peak. The ETF began as a 2010 offering, yet this history reveals the potential downside of entering a bear market early. During the 2022 bear market, the S&P 500 dropped 18.1%, while the ETF fell 18.2%. However, the ETF rebounded 26.3% in 2023, with a cumulative return of 3.3% including dividends. This indicates that buying during a bear market does not guarantee quick gains and requires considering whether lower prices reflect potential earnings declines. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF offers exposure to major U.S. companies across various sectors, with low annual expenses at 0.03%, or $3 per $10,000 invested. Unlike more sector-specific ETFs, it is not heavily reliant on a single sector, making it suitable for investors who cannot predict which industries will outperform. However, it is not equally weighted, with the top 10 holdings accounting for 39.1% of assets as of Sept. 30. The top holdings, particularly technology companies like Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft, significantly influence the ETF's performance. If the S&P 500 falls by 20% during a future bear market and earnings estimates remain unchanged, the ETF's P/E ratio would drop to 14.2. If earnings estimates also fall 20%, the P/E ratio would remain at 17.7. Despite lower prices, investors would still pay the same multiple of expected earnings. Therefore, a falling market does not necessarily mean stocks have become cheaper relative to their earnings prospects. Buying the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF during the next bear market could be a good choice if share prices decline significantly without a similar drop in the long-term earnings prospects of its holdings. However, waiting for the next bear market also carries risks, as the S&P 500 could rise significantly before one occurs. Nonetheless, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF provides a way to invest across different sectors without needing to predict which one will outperform.",
  "summary": "The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF offers a way to invest in the next bear market without betting on any single sector.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}