{
  "id": 19636244,
  "title": "Where is El Niño? Kenya urged to prepare for extreme rainfall despite forecast uncertainty",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/12/where-is-el-nino-kenya-urged-to-prepare-for-extreme-rainfall-despite",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-11-12T10:25:31.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "People Daily Kenya",
    "slug": "people-daily-kenya",
    "url": "https://peopledaily.digital/insights/where-is-el-nino-kenya-urged-to-prepare-for-extreme-rainfall-despite-forecast-uncertainty"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Kenya must prepare for extreme rainfall and potential flooding despite weather forecast uncertainties, warns a senior scientist from the Kenya Meteorological Department. Dr Joyce Kimutai, a principal meteorologist, emphasized that while long-range weather predictions are less certain due to the complexity of atmospheric systems, forecast accuracy improves as the predicted period nears. She urged government agencies, urban planners, farmers, and decision-makers to regularly update their plans based on monthly and weekly climate information. Kimutai stressed that climate science cannot guarantee 100% accuracy, and planners should instead consider various possible weather outcomes rather than relying on a single forecast for financial and infrastructure decisions. She used Nairobi as an example, questioning whether the city's infrastructure can withstand severe rainfall, suggesting that authorities should consider worst-case scenarios when designing roads, drainage systems, and other infrastructure. The meteorologist also called for climate information to inform government budgeting and disaster preparedness, advocating for probability-based planning to avoid both inadequate preparation and unnecessary expenditure. She clarified that above-normal rainfall forecasts indicate the cumulative rainfall expected over a period compared to the area's long-term average, not necessarily continuous rainfall every day. Kimutai warned that changing rainfall patterns, characterized by drier periods interrupted by intense precipitation, can expose communities to extreme weather events difficult to anticipate using historical records alone.",
  "summary": "Kenya must prepare for extreme rainfall and flooding even when weather forecasts carry uncertainty, a senior Kenya Meteorological Department scientist has warned, arguing that climate information should guide long-term planning rather than trigger last-minute government responses. Dr Joyce Kimutai, a principal meteorologist at the Kenya Meteorological Department, said weather forecasts are not…",
  "key_points": [
    "Kenya urged to prepare for extreme rainfall and flooding despite forecast uncertainties",
    "Dr Joyce Kimutai emphasizes improving forecast accuracy as predictions near",
    "Government agencies and planners need to consider worst-case scenarios for infrastructure"
  ],
  "editors_take": "Shifting toward probability-based planning forces Kenyan authorities to prioritize infrastructure resilience and flexible budgeting over the limitations of unpredictable long-range weather forecasts and outdated historical climate records.",
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}