{
  "id": 19494465,
  "title": "Jefferies Backs Two European Oil Stocks, Lifts 2027 Brent Call to $82.5",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/11/jefferies-backs-two-european-oil-stocks-lifts-2027-brent-call-to-82-5",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-11-11T12:29:05.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Investing.com",
    "slug": "investing-com",
    "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/jefferies-backs-two-european-oil-stocks-lifts-2027-brent-call-to-825-5018661"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Jefferies upgraded its rating to \"buy\" and increased its price target to €35 on Repsol, a European integrated oil company. The investment firm cited a 44% rise in Repsol's 2026 shareholder returns estimate and highlighted its sector-leading net debt reduction. Jefferies anticipates Repsol to generate a free cash flow yield of approximately 18% in 2027, which would be the highest within the sector, even with oil prices settling to more normal levels and refining margins. The firm projects a total return of 23% for investors, including dividends, over the next 12 months. They revised their 2026 earnings estimate for Repsol upward by 2%, primarily due to a higher Brent crude price assumption of $95 per barrel in the fourth quarter compared to their previous estimate of $80. This led to a 4% increase in 2027 earnings forecasts, driven by higher oil prices and improved trading performance. Jefferies reduced its fourth-quarter refining margin assumption for Repsol from $27 to about $26 per barrel, accounting for potential margin moderation. However, they noted that margins remained strong at around $30 and were rising as of October 29. The analysis factors in continued disruptions to Russian refineries and low inventories, which could maintain diesel margins even as Hormuz product flows recover. Repsol's valuation does not include its stake in the Petrocarabobo project in Venezuela, where the company is nearing finalizing a 33% ownership position, with completion expected before the end of 2026. Under a 12-month downside scenario assuming Brent crude at $60 per barrel and weaker refining margins, Jefferies values Repsol at €18, representing a 39% decline. Conversely, the upside scenario values the stock at €45, marking a 53% increase. Jefferies maintained a \"buy\" rating on Neste, a Finland-listed renewable oil product and refining company. However, they lowered their target price by 4% to €37.40 from €39, as the Rotterdam expansion of Neste's operations has been delayed to the end of 2027, and they adjusted their 2027 renewable product sales volume forecast to approximately 4.4 million tonnes from the previous estimate of 5.0 million tonnes. This delay pushes expected growth into 2028. The company also reduced its 2027 net income estimate for Neste by 9%, from €2.30 billion to €2.09 billion. Jefferies raised its 2027 Brent crude forecast by $7.5, now projecting $82.5 per barrel, and retained their European refining benchmark margin at $30 per barrel.",
  "summary": null,
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}