{
  "id": 19487464,
  "title": "El Niño warning: Why parts of Kenya could face floods while others experience dry spells",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/11/el-nino-warning-why-parts-of-kenya-could-face-floods-while-others",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-11-11T11:25:41.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "People Daily Kenya",
    "slug": "people-daily-kenya",
    "url": "https://peopledaily.digital/news/el-nino-warning-why-parts-of-kenya-could-face-floods-while-others-experience-dry-spells"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Kenya may experience a mix of extreme weather conditions in the coming weeks as an unusually wet October to December season unfolds. While the overall outlook predicts above-normal rainfall, shorter-term forecasts suggest some areas could see below-normal rainfall, potentially leaving certain regions vulnerable to flooding and others facing prolonged drought. Humanitarian group Welthungerhilfe warns that this contrast could expose different communities to both flooding and water shortages during the same rainy season. Northeastern Kenya stands out as one area where rainfall patterns have changed significantly, with October rainfall across East Africa being mixed - more modest in Kenya than expected. Parts of the country's southeastern coast and northeastern regions are expected to face a higher likelihood of below-normal rainfall in upcoming forecasts, meaning even as heavy rain falls in other areas, communities in these regions could endure multi-week dry spells. The report notes that these contrasting patterns are driven by El Niño and the positive Indian Ocean Dipole, both of which are shaping climate conditions in East Africa. El Niño, a warm Pacific Ocean phenomenon, influences atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns globally. The report highlights that El Niño remains very strong and expected to peak towards the end of 2026, with a 96 percent probability of very strong conditions during November-December-January. However, the combined effects of El Niño and the positive Indian Ocean Dipole do not guarantee uniform rainfall. Heavy rainfall events could lead to flash floods, particularly in exposed riverine and urban areas, while regions with prolonged dry spells may face water supply, agricultural, and livestock shortages. The assessment recommends maintaining flood preparedness while using updated weather forecasts, river levels, soil saturation, and local observations to assess emerging risks. Despite the emerging dry spells, the seasonal forecast predicts that 43 Kenyan counties, including Nairobi, Kiambu, Nakuru, and others, are expected to receive above-average rainfall this year. This uneven rainfall outlook presents mixed prospects for agriculture, with areas receiving sufficient and well-distributed rainfall potentially benefiting from improved soil moisture and water availability. However, prolonged dry spells could disrupt planting and affect moisture-dependent crops, while heavy downpours may damage crops, cause soil erosion, and harm agricultural infrastructure. The report cautions against relying solely on El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole for disaster-response decisions, instead urging authorities to use updated weather forecasts, hydrological information, and observed conditions to guide preparedness measures tailored to the varying risks across the country.",
  "summary": "Kenya could experience a contrasting pattern of extreme weather in the coming weeks, with some areas facing heavy rainfall and flooding while others endure prolonged dry spells, despite forecasts indicating an unusually wet October-December season. The November 10, 2026, briefing by humanitarian organisation Welthungerhilfe identifies Kenya among the East African countries requiring closer…",
  "key_points": [
    "Parts of Kenya may face flooding while others experience drought during October-December season.",
    "El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole drive contrasting rainfall patterns in East Africa.",
    "Nairobi and other counties expected to receive above-average rainfall this year."
  ],
  "editors_take": "The uneven distribution of rainfall across Kenya forces communities to prepare for diametrically opposed climate risks, where some regions must manage flash floods while others struggle with water shortages.",
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}