{
  "id": 19483310,
  "title": "Diesel cracks stay high but seaborne supply points to easing",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/11/diesel-cracks-stay-high-but-seaborne-supply-points-to-easing",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-11-11T11:00:25.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Hellenic Shipping News",
    "slug": "hellenic-shipping-news",
    "url": "https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/diesel-cracks-stay-high-but-seaborne-supply-points-to-easing/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Diesel cracking prices remain elevated in Northwest Europe, hovering around $88 per barrel, while jet and kerosene prices sit near $85 per barrel as of November 6 (Argus). The strength of these prices is attributed to tight inventories in the Atlantic Basin; however, seaborne shipments suggest a potential easing in supply.\n\nRussia is the most significant factor that could alter this trend. Attacks on Russian refineries have reduced output and led to export restrictions, causing diesel exports from its Baltic and Black Sea ports to drop to an eight-month low of 150,000 barrels in August, down from 755,000 barrels in August 2025. However, exports have started to recover since mid-October, surpassing 350,000 barrels by November 6 (28-day moving average).\n\nRefinery attacks have reached their lowest levels in six months in October, raising the possibility that production could return to pre-pandemic levels, nearly tripling current volumes. Nonetheless, this would depend on the intensity of any further attacks and the speed of repairs.\n\nGlobal seaborne middle distillate exports, excluding Russia, reached a record high of 10.2 million barrels per day as of November 6 (28-day moving average), 20% higher than the seasonal average from 2016-25. Saudi Arabia's exports have surged by more than 500,000 barrels month-over-month, with nearly 300,000 barrels coming from Red Sea ports and the rest from Hormuz ports. India's exports are also at seasonal highs, up 130,000 barrels from a month earlier, while US Gulf Coast exports have eased slightly but remain at seasonal records.\n\nThe global increase in diesel, gas oil, and jet/kero exports is particularly noteworthy given the collapse in Northeast Asian exports in October, down by 25% between October 1 and 31 (28-day moving average), with China accounting for around 70% of the decline following a brief suspension of exports for the Golden Week.\n\nRefinery capacity is recovering globally in November and December as the maintenance season ends, with some turnarounds pushed back to 2027. Refineries such as Saint John, Negishi (150,000 barrels), Fawley (270,000 barrels), and Cartagena (110,000 CDU) are expected to resume operations, with China's potential fourth batch of export quotas adding an additional 600,000 barrels of transport fuel exports across November and December. However, China's domestic diesel supply remains tight, and the country is likely to prioritize jet/kero exports.\n\nWhile margins may soften over the coming months due to the building supply from multiple fronts, low Atlantic inventories and winter heating demand should cushion any decline. However, a significant drop in oil exports transiting the Strait of Hormuz could cut middle distillate exports from the Gulf and affect crude supply worldwide, posing a key risk to the current upward trend.",
  "summary": "Middle distillate cracks remain elevated, with Northwest Europe diesel near $88/b and jet/kero near $85/b as of 6 November (Argus). Tight Atlantic Basin inventories have underpinned this strength, but seaborne flows point to a loosening ahead, although the pace will depend on several factors. Russia is the largest swing factor Repeated attacks on Russian refineries ...",
  "key_points": [
    "Diesel cracking prices high at $88 per barrel in Northwest Europe",
    "Seaborne shipments indicate potential easing in diesel supply",
    "Russia's refinery attacks reduced exports to eight-month low"
  ],
  "editors_take": "Rising global seaborne shipments and recovering refinery capacities threaten to offset high cracking margins by introducing much-needed middle distillate supply to an otherwise tight Atlantic Basin market.",
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}