{
  "id": 19403556,
  "title": "Only 2 Novembers Since 1950 Have Started Worse for the S&P 500 Than This One. Here's What Followed the Other Weak Starts.",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/10/only-2-novembers-since-1950-have-started-worse-for-the-s-p-500-than",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-11-10T22:07:01.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Motley Fool",
    "slug": "motley-fool",
    "url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/11/10/only-2-novembers-since-1950-have-started-worse-for-the-s-and-p-500-than-this-one-here-s-what-followed-the-other-weak-starts/?source=iedfolrf0000001"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Only two occasions since 1950 have seen the S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.38%) start November with a weaker performance than the current year. In 2007 and 2008, the index suffered declines of 4.76% and 3.90% respectively during the initial week of November. The remaining six years that closely mirrored this year's poor start yielded varying outcomes. In 1973, the index plummeted by 2.30%; in 1976, it fell 2.02%; in 1979, it dropped 1.92%; while 1994, 1951, and 1967 saw modest declines of 1.96%, 1.96%, and 1.95% respectively. The period between the first week of November and the end of April in each of these years showcased a diverse range of results. While 1973 witnessed a substantial drop of roughly 15%, the other years experienced less dramatic gains or losses, ranging from about 6% to 4%. Over the long term, the S&P 500 has emerged stronger in 71% of the instances where it faced a weak November start. In four of those cases, the economy was in recession, leading to declines. However, in the other four instances, the economy was on the mend, resulting in gains. Notably, only three of these eight winters coincided with the onset of a recession within the subsequent 18 months. The other five winters did not experience a recession during that period. When juxtaposed with the broader economic context, the first week of November appears to be a less reliable predictor of future market performance. Currently, economic indicators suggest a robust economy, with a 3.4% annual GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2025. However, historical data reveals that numerous market downturns had already commenced by this point. Despite the potential for this year's start to spiral into a more significant downturn, the initial week's performance has not consistently foretold what lay ahead.",
  "summary": "The eight weak starts before this one split evenly. What separated the winters that went badly?",
  "key_points": [
    "Only two Novembers since 1950 started worse for S&P 500 than this November",
    "2007 and 2008 saw declines of 4.76% and 3.90% in first week of November",
    "Historical data shows 71% of weak November starts led to S&P 500's long-term strength"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}