{
  "id": 19387971,
  "title": "Trucking Market: Why Is It Flat Despite 12.8% Rejection?",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/10/trucking-market-why-is-it-flat-despite-12-8-rejection",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-11-10T19:31:13.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FreightWaves",
    "slug": "freightwaves",
    "url": "https://www.freightwaves.com/news/trucking-market-why-is-it-flat-despite-12-8-rejection"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The trucking market is currently experiencing flat conditions despite a high rejection rate of 12.8% in truckload tenders, which is double the rate from last year. The market's lack of typical peak season momentum is raising questions about whether the freight market can sustain a strong holiday surge and the implications for 2027 contract rates. The overall tender rejection index has remained relatively stable, with only a slight 1 percentage point drop in the last 20 days. Julie Van de Kamp and Craig Fuller, analysts at FreightWaves, suggest that a more robust increase in tender rejections would indicate a stronger market heading into 2027.\n\nDemand for freight is showing some positive signs, with November's Outbound Tender Volume Index averaging 11,434, up 12% from November of the previous year and up roughly 3% from October. This marks the first noticeable demand build the market has experienced as it heads into the holiday season.\n\nReefer freight is the standout segment in the market, with tender rejections at 21% compared to just 12.6% at the same time last year. This surge in reefer rejections is being driven by Thanksgiving-related food shipments and tightening capacity. A strong El Niño, which some forecasters are calling the strongest in over 100 years, could further pressure reefer capacity during the winter months, particularly for protect-from-freeze freight carrying food products and electronics.\n\nSpot rate data by mode highlights the divergence in market conditions. Refrigerated rates have increased sharply since July and remain elevated, while flatbed rates are holding at a premium due to AI data center construction and industrial activity. Dry van rates, on the other hand, have largely flattened. According to Craig Fuller, C.H. Robinson's forecast for 2026 flatbed cost-per-mile is 28% year over year, with an additional 10% projected for 2027.\n\nGeographically, the Pacific Northwest is starting to tighten due to the ramp-up in apple, potato, and Christmas tree harvests. During this time, the market typically experiences a surge in activity before slowing down 9 months out of the year. However, this year's rate relief may be more limited than usual, according to Van de Kamp. Both analysts agree that the next two weeks around Thanksgiving will be crucial in determining whether the market has enough momentum to establish a tighter environment heading into the 2026 contract season. Winter weather adds an additional wildcard to capacity considerations, especially for refrigerated freight.",
  "summary": "The latest SONAR data shows truckload rejections at 12.8%, double last year’s rate, yet the market feels unexpectedly soft. We break down why the usual peak season momentum is missing and what that means for freight rates, volumes, and capacity as we head into Thanksgiving and year-end. Plus, a look at how a strong El […] The post Trucking Market: Why Is It Flat Despite 12.8% Rejection? appeared…",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}