{
  "id": 19259961,
  "title": "We Are Witnessing the Stock Market Do Something for Only the 2nd Time in 136 Years, and History Is Clear What Comes Next for Stocks",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/10/we-are-witnessing-the-stock-market-do-something-for-only-the-2nd-time",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-11-10T01:30:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Motley Fool",
    "slug": "motley-fool",
    "url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/11/09/we-are-witnessing-the-stock-market-do-something-fo/?source=iedfolrf0000001"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "In the fifth year of a bull market, investors have grown anxious amidst trading activity since the midterm elections. Stocks surged to their best day in a year and a half on November 4th, but this was quickly reversed the following day. Earnings growth has been impressive, driving market growth, but concerns loom over the future of artificial intelligence and what stage we are in the \"super cycle\" or the fourth industrial revolution. The stock market is witnessing something only seen twice in the last 136 years, and history provides a clear indication of what is next for stocks. After a recent 4% pullback, the S&P 500 (^GSPC +2.35%) is still up 10% this year. Despite a three-year streak of increases of at least 15%, and two of those years seeing gains of over 20%, the market remains at concerning levels according to the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio, also known as the Shiller P/E. This ratio currently stands at 41, double the average dating back to 1890 and only reached this high once before – in 2000 during the dot-com bubble burst. The Shiller P/E has been a source of worry for investors, as it has never been this high since 2000. In the years leading up to the dot-com bubble burst, tech stocks experienced a massive decline, losing around 77% of their value over two years. While there are similarities between the dot-com bubble and the AI supercycle, there are also significant differences. For instance, AI hyperscalers have funded the AI infrastructure build-out, but some have now entered negative free cash flow territory due to increased debt. If AI fails to live up to expectations or experiences a major setback, these stocks could face significant losses. Given the high Shiller P/E level, history suggests a major reset is coming, and a bear market may be on the horizon. However, predicting the market's timing is nearly impossible. Despite this uncertainty, earnings growth is still projected to remain strong. Investors should review their portfolios, examine stock valuations, and assess their resilience in a potential bear market. While many long-term investors may not need drastic changes, it is crucial to be prepared for any eventuality and avoid hasty decisions such as panic selling.",
  "summary": "After over four years of strong returns, the stock market looks pricey based on some closely watched metrics.",
  "key_points": [
    "Stock market witnessing something only seen twice in 136 years",
    "S&P 500 up 10% this year despite 4% pullback",
    "Shiller P/E ratio at 41, highest since 2000"
  ],
  "editors_take": "Elevated valuation ratios mirroring the dot-com era signal a potential shift toward a bear market, forcing investors to prepare for a major reset if artificial intelligence fails to sustain growth.",
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}