{
  "id": 19252824,
  "title": "Elon Musk Just Gave the Top End of His SpaceX Revenue Forecast About a 2% Chance. His Best Guess Sits at the Bottom End.",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/10/elon-musk-just-gave-the-top-end-of-his-spacex-revenue-forecast-about",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-11-10T00:23:02.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Motley Fool",
    "slug": "motley-fool",
    "url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/11/09/elon-musk-just-gave-the-top-end-of-his-spacex-revenue-forecast-about-a-2-chance-his-best-guess-sits-at-the-bottom-end/?source=iedfolrf0000001"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Elon Musk has indicated a 2% chance that SpaceX's annual recurring revenue will reach $500 billion by December 2027, according to projections made at a recent earnings call. This is significantly lower than his best guess, which is $1 trillion. Despite the low odds, Musk also stated it is not out of the question. His current stock price is trading at around $140, which is slightly above its IPO price of $135 and approximately 38% below its 52-week high of $225.64. SpaceX's revenue has been growing rapidly, with the third quarter seeing an increase of 87% sequentially to $14.6 billion. The company expects revenue to grow by about 70% in the fourth quarter, bringing it to roughly $25 billion. CFO Bret Johnsen, however, forecasted revenue to be between $33 billion and $37 billion for the first quarter of 2027, a significant increase from the midpoint. To achieve a $500 billion revenue target, SpaceX would need to experience a growth rate of 45% to 50% in each of the remaining quarters of 2027. This would require the company to hit an average growth rate of over 50% in each quarter, putting significant pressure on its revenue growth.",
  "summary": "Even the low end is five times this December's pace. How much of that is already in the stock?",
  "key_points": [
    "Elon Musk estimates 2% chance SpaceX reaches $500B revenue by Dec 2027",
    "Best guess for revenue is $1 trillion, not $500B",
    "SpaceX Q3 revenue grew 87% to $14.6B, Q4 expected 70% growth"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}