{
  "id": 19094631,
  "title": "Breaking boom-bust cycle of crops in Punjab",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/09/breaking-boom-bust-cycle-of-crops-in-punjab",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-11-09T01:34:28.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Dawn Business",
    "slug": "dawn-business",
    "url": "https://www.dawn.com/news/2043195/breaking-boom-bust-cycle-of-crops-in-punjab"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "In Punjab, farmers decide what to plant each year based on the prices crops fetched in the previous season. Their choices align with those of neighbors and farmers in adjoining districts, creating a pattern where a successful crop year often leads to a poor one the following year. This cycle is tracked weekly by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, though it's rarely considered an issue. In late January 2026, prices for tomatoes, potatoes, and onions dropped significantly compared to the previous year, only to rise sharply by August. This fluctuation between collapse and shortage is not due to weather, but rather the result of farmers committing to acreage months before knowing market prices. Economists call this the \"cobweb\" phenomenon, which is common wherever producers commit to crops before knowing market prices. In Punjab, the lack of a system to inform farmers about others' planting intentions leads to significant post-harvest losses and household financial burdens. Although institutions like the Crop Reporting Service, Agriculture Marketing Information Service, and extension wing exist, they focus on measuring acreage and market prices after the fact, rather than anticipating future planting intentions. Some countries have addressed this problem by surveying farmers' planting intentions in advance and providing compensation for price declines. Implementing a similar advisory system in Punjab could help mitigate the negative impacts of the cobweb cycle, but it requires creating a market intelligence function within the agriculture department to weigh farmers' intentions against carry-over stocks and past prices.",
  "summary": "In Punjab, a farmer makes his sowing decision the same way every year. He looks at the price the crops fetched last season and plants, accordingly. His neighbours and farmers in adjoining districts often make similar choices. The result is that a good year for a crop almost guarantees a bad one after it. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics records this cycle weekly, although it is rarely treated as…",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}