{
  "id": 18738752,
  "title": "OPINION: How close were the CSIR result predictions?",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/07/opinion-how-close-were-the-csir-result-predictions",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-11-07T14:59:02.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "SABC News",
    "slug": "sabc-news",
    "url": "https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/opinion-how-close-were-the-csir-result-predictions/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) has partnered with SABC News for many years to forecast election results leading up to South Africa's 2026 Local Government Elections. The CSIR, a Science Council under the Department of Science, Technology and Innovation, has continually improved its algorithms since working with the SABC in 2004. Their prediction model utilizes official early results from the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) to forecast final election outcomes.\n\nThe CSIR model proves accurate, with predictions typically within 1 to 3 percentage points of the final vote counts. They begin making predictions once as few as 5% of votes have been verified, but hold back from public release until 15% of votes are verified due to potential unforeseen shifts, especially at the local level. The model's foundation rests on two principles: analysis of historical voting behavior patterns and an understanding of how voting district results are reported during the counting process. Statistical clustering techniques allow the model to group similar voting districts together, enabling projections before all voting districts have reported their results.\n\nAn example of the CSIR model's accuracy can be seen in the North West province, where with just 14% of votes officially verified, the model predicted the ANC would receive 44% of votes, the DA 14%, and the EFF 11%. As of 69% of votes counted, the prediction has held true with the ANC at 44%, the DA at 14%, and the EFF at 12.5%. Mangaung, which was previously controlled by the ANC, saw a predicted drop in ANC support from 37% to 31.6% as more votes were counted. However, the CSIR model factors in voting patterns from remaining wards, and in Mangaung, all the outstanding wards are in areas with strong ANC support, suggesting the predicted support levels may remain close to the final numbers.\n\nBeyond national elections, the CSIR model has accurately predicted local council election outcomes. In Gauteng's eight metros, only the City of Cape Town is not expected to form a coalition government. The CSIR correctly predicted the role of ActionSA, the MK Party, and the SA Communist Party (SACP) in the job market. The SACP gained enough votes to win council seats, and the CSIR is pleased with the model's success. They will continue refining the model in preparation for the next National and Provincial Elections in 2029.",
  "summary": "The CSIR is pleased that its predictions have stood the test of time.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}