{
  "id": 1872447,
  "title": "DNB Carnegie: Venter to rentekutt neste år",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/19/dnb-carnegie-venter-to-rentekutt-neste-ar",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-08-19T05:04:36.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "E24 Norway",
    "slug": "e24-norway",
    "url": "https://e24.no/norsk-oekonomi/i/d4re8w/dnb-carnegie-venter-to-rentekutt-neste-aar"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Norges Bank plans to keep interest rates high despite DNB Carnegie's optimistic economic forecasts, according to a recent report. The world is becoming a riskier place, and resilience is being built, but it comes at a cost, the report's main point. Investments in defense, energy, technology, and infrastructure are accelerating, while the same investments are pushing prices up, keeping inflation in check and forcing central banks to maintain high rates for a long time. Outlooks suggest Norwegian borrowers must brace for continued high interest rates. Norges Bank raised its policy rate to 4.25% in May and signaled further tightening in June. Core inflation fell surprisingly much in June and July, to 2.7% annually, well below both Norges Bank's and market expectations. In August, the central bank left the rate unchanged but warned that further hikes could still be needed, even though the phrasing was more vague. DNB Carnegie's economists Oddmund Berg and Kyrre Aamdal expect core inflation to rebound to 3.2% annually as early as August. Their forecast is that the central bank will raise the policy rate by a quarter-point to 4.5% in September, with two rate cuts expected at the end of 2027, bringing the policy rate down to 4.0%. They also expect the rate to stay there through 2028 and 2029. Housing prices have been weak so far this year, falling 2.6% in July. Oslo housing prices fell 2% in July, and have had a negative trend of 0.8% so far this year. This has even surprised central bank chief. DNB Carnegie thinks the July drop should be taken with caution but also points out that there are still many homes for sale, including many recently vacant rentals on the market. Economists believe price growth will stay suppressed the rest of the year, before it gradually picks up again in 2027. - A solid labor market, continued high nominal wage growth, low supply of new homes, and two rate cuts from Norges Bank in the second half of 2027 will support stronger housing price growth in the coming years, writes DNB Carnegie. They project growth of 2.6% this year, followed by 3.7% in 2027. Then they believe price growth will surge, to 6.5% in 2028 and 6.0% in 2029. The Norwegian krone has been the best performing G10 currency so far in 2026. DNB Carnegie points to persistent high inflation, expectations of tighter monetary policy, and higher energy prices as the main drivers of the appreciation. However, they believe the bias for the krone is now starting to wane. DNB Carnegie estimates the euro will cost 11.30 kroner in 12 months, up from around 10.9 kroner, representing a depreciation of the krone by about 3.5% against the euro, so for an expenditure of 1,000 euros it amounts to about 400 kroner more. The dollar is also expected to rise from around 9.4 to 9.66 kroner. Meanwhile, the forecasts underpin the idea that oil and gas prices are gradually falling, which can weaken another important support for the krone. In the long run, DNB Carnegie points out that Norwegian households are placing part of their savings in foreign securities. When many of these investments are not currency hedged, it creates demand for foreign currency and a continued downward pressure on the krone. Overall, DNB Carnegie believes that lower energy prices and continued demand for foreign securities from Norwegian households will weigh more heavily than the influence of the high interest rate. They therefore maintain their forecast that the euro will cost around 11.30 kroner in 12 months.",
  "summary": "Men først skal den opp.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}