{
  "id": 18465361,
  "title": "Goldman lowers year-end gold price forecast on hawkish Fed shift",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/06/goldman-lowers-year-end-gold-price-forecast-on-hawkish-fed-shift",
  "topic": "ai",
  "section": "AI",
  "published": "2026-11-06T07:44:23.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Investing.com",
    "slug": "investing-com",
    "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/goldman-lowers-yearend-gold-price-forecast-on-hawkish-fed-shift-5006662"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Goldman Sachs has revised its gold price projections downward, attributing the shift to the Federal Reserve's recent hawkish stance and its impact on investor sentiment. The financial institution lowered its end-2026 forecast from $4,650 to $4,150 per ounce, and its end-2027 forecast from $5,400 to $4,800. Analyst Lina Thomas spearheaded the reduction, noting that a December rate hike by the Fed would keep concerns about currency debasement in check. Consequently, Goldman anticipates demand for gold as a hedge against macro-policy risks to revert to its historical average rather than surge back to elevated levels observed earlier this year. The bank's expectations align with the relative tranquility of 2022, when central banks bolstered the structural demand for gold, while higher interest rates restrained investor positioning, resulting in a more subdued pace of price appreciation.\n\nCentral bank buying, particularly from 60 tonnes a month through 2026 and 2027, remains the primary support for gold prices, as opposed to the pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes monthly. Goldman now estimates monthly purchases at 85 tonnes on a seasonally adjusted three-month basis. The strategists maintain a constructive outlook on central bank demand as the primary driver of a 15% price upside by end-2027. However, they highlight a disparity in central bank gold allocations, with emerging-market central banks, especially China, remaining relatively underweight compared to plausible long-term holdings. Developed-market central banks have generally refrained from extensive buying, partly due to their already substantial gold reserves acquired over time.\n\nThe debate surrounding gold investment is now pivoting from the \"to own\" discussion to the \"where to store\" dilemma, reflecting broader concerns about reserve security and global trust. Goldman expects further price support once the Fed initiates rate cuts in the second half of 2027, with economists forecasting reductions from late 2027 through early 2028. This should alleviate the rate constraint on gold, enabling private investor interest to contend with central bank buying once again. Notably, the outlook varies depending on the investment horizon, with challenges persisting for short-term players such as CTAs and macro hedge funds due to rising funds rates, volatile energy prices, and stringent drawdown limits. Moreover, higher oil prices could exacerbate the situation through systematic selling. Longer-term investors eyeing exposure to central bank demand or seeking protection against policy tail risks might find the current correction an opportune entry point, according to Goldman's assessment.\n\nGoldman cautions that further downside risk could materialize if the Fed raises interest rates again in March 2027, delays rate cuts, or raises its terminal rate. In such a scenario, the bank projects gold prices to settle at $4,660 by the end of 2027. Additionally, fiscal sustainability concerns could reinvigorate hedge fund demand, potentially providing upside beyond the bank's base case of $4,800 by the end of 2027.",
  "summary": null,
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}