{
  "id": 18262939,
  "title": "The Midterms Are Over. Here's What Chip Stocks Did in the Year After Each of the Last 8.",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/05/the-midterms-are-over-heres-what-chip-stocks-did-in-the-year-after",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-11-05T06:17:01.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Motley Fool",
    "slug": "motley-fool",
    "url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/11/05/the-midterms-are-over-here-s-what-chip-stocks-did-in-the-year-after-each-of-the-last-8/?source=iedfolrf0000001"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The midterm elections are now behind us, and chip stocks entered the post-election period with a bruised outlook. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH -2.75%) closed on Election Day at $518.52, around 22% below its all-time high set on June 22, but still up 44% since the start of 2026. To understand how chip stocks have typically performed in the 12 months following a midterm election, I analyzed data from the PHLX Semiconductor Index, a widely followed chip benchmark. The index had only one loss in the subsequent year, after the 2006 midterm vote, falling by roughly 5%. The remaining seven midterms saw the index gain, with gains ranging from about 8% after 2006 to about 48% after 1998. The index also outperformed the S&P 500 in six of the eight post-midterm years, though the average gain was about 13%. In four of these cycles, chip stocks started the year down over the prior 12 months, with falls exceeding a third in two instances. However, these four cycles were among the five biggest gains overall, with an average gain of around 68%. Conversely, the three years that began with gains in the prior 12 months produced the three weakest results. This pattern suggests that chip stocks often trade as growth stocks, reacting to investors' expectations for future performance. A chip index that has already declined for a year may have much of the downturn priced in, while one that has risen may carry a valuation reflecting substantial good news. Nonetheless, the 1994 election stands out as an exception, with the index already up around 19% from May to Election Day and still gaining about 66% the following year. This year's rally into the vote is larger than any in the record, with the index closing around 46% above its level a year earlier, despite having already given back about 28% from its recent 12-month high. Still, a fall from a summer peak is not the same as a losing year. With this year's rally coming in bigger than any in the record, an investor who bought the index a year before the vote still has almost half the gain. While eight cycles provide a thin record and dividing them equally offers an even thinner view, the post-election performance of chip stocks suggests a quieter trajectory, similar to the small gains achieved after the 2010 and 2014 votes.",
  "summary": "Chip stocks have normally risen after midterm votes. But how many of those years began like this one?",
  "key_points": [
    "Chip stocks closed at $518.52 on Election Day, 22% below all-time high.",
    "Post-midterm index gained 44% since 2026 start, outperformed S&P 500 in 6/8 years.",
    "Four cycles saw chip stocks down prior year, but resulted in 5 biggest gains overall."
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 2,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "Nasdaq Markets",
        "title": "The Midterms Are Over. Here's What Chip Stocks Did in the Year After Each of the Last 8.",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/05/the-midterms-are-over-heres-what-chip-stocks-did-in-the-year-after-18271407",
        "published": "2026-11-05T06:37:01.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}