{
  "id": 18126627,
  "title": "Prediction markets win big on election night",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/04/prediction-markets-win-big-on-election-night",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-11-04T13:53:32.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Semafor",
    "slug": "semafor",
    "url": "https://www.semafor.com/article/11/04/2026/prediction-markets-win-big-on-election-night"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "In the recent midterms, prediction markets proved to be formidable competitors. Kalshi and Polymarket accurately predicted the Democratic landslide in Congress, along with crucial swing state outcomes, surpassing many polling models in their accuracy. However, they fell short in forecasting unexpected results such as Texas Governor Greg Abbott's defeat and Democratic wins in Iowa and South Carolina.\n\nTrading activity on election-related contracts surged nearly fivefold, reaching $1.8 billion during this year's midterms, compared to the 2024 cycle. Contrary to other popular betting categories, sports and cryptocurrency markets still dominate trading volume on these platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi, two leading prediction markets, have heavily invested in advertising to attract the sports-betting and gambling crowd, with aggressive campaigns on Meta and surpassing super PAC spending levels. Strategic partnerships with media outlets like CNN and Dow Jones have also bolstered their influence.\n\nWhile these firms have undoubtedly increased their revenue, the true test of their success lies in their ability to deliver accurate predictions - a feat prediction markets claim to excel at.",
  "summary": "Kalshi and Polymarket correctly called the Democratic sweep of Congress by wider margins than most polling models, as well as some key battleground races.",
  "key_points": [
    "Prediction markets accurately forecasted Democratic landslide in Congress",
    "Trading volume on election contracts surged nearly fivefold to $1.8 billion",
    "Sports and cryptocurrency markets dominate trading volume on prediction platforms"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}