{
  "id": 18017431,
  "title": "Kalshi’s midterm trading tops $1.4 billion as traders bet on a Democratic sweep of Congress",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/03/kalshis-midterm-trading-tops-1-4-billion-as-traders-bet-on-a",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-11-03T19:28:24.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Fortune",
    "slug": "fortune",
    "url": "https://fortune.com/2026/11/03/kalshis-midterm-trading-1-4-billion-traders-democratic-sweep-congress/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "At the height of Election Day fervor, traders on Kalshi are placing their money on a Democratic victory in the upcoming midterm elections. According to the platform, Democrats have a 93% chance of capturing control of the House and a 73% probability of seizing the Senate. Kalshi's predictions are drawing significant attention from political enthusiasts, but they are also generating substantial financial activity. Trading volume related to midterm elections has surpassed $1.4 billion as of Tuesday, Fortune reported. Leading the pack is a contract regarding whether Republicans or Democrats will control Congress, which has attracted $251 million in trading volume. A similar contract concerning which party will hold the House control has crossed the $181 million mark. A market tracking all four possible combinations of House and Senate control has exceeded $112 million in trading volume. Key races are also garnering attention on these platforms, where traders can bet on a range of subjects from sports to politics. The Los Angeles mayoral race, which will determine whether Democrat Karen Bass secures a second term, has drawn nearly $110 million in trading volume. Texas' Senate race is also gaining momentum, nearing the $100 million mark, with traders giving Democrat James Talarico a 71% chance of defeating Republican Ken Paxton. However, Texas' gubernatorial contest still favors incumbent Republican Greg Abbott, who has a 65% chance of winning, as per traders, while his challenger Gina Hinojosa aims to make history by becoming the state's first Democratic governor since 1995. The surge in midterm trading follows prediction markets' breakthrough in 2024, when traders on Kalshi and Polymarket favored Donald Trump as the winning candidate, despite polls indicating a crowded race. This move turned the platforms into valuable political barometers. However, their forecasting accuracy has been questioned due to recent misses, raising doubts about the reliability of the odds. For instance, last month, traders on Kalshi and Polymarket bet heavily on Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, to defeat incumbent Lula da Silva in Brazil's presidential runoff, giving him an 80% chance of victory. Yet, the outcome defied expectations as Lula emerged victorious. Similarly, Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary surprised traders in August, when Francesca Hong was given a 95% chance of winning, only for David Crowley to claim the seat by less than half a percentage point. Polymarket later removed a post celebrating Hong's odds, while Kalshi's founders defended the forecast by stating that \"5% is not 0%.\"",
  "summary": "From Texas to Los Angeles, traders are placing their bets. Recent surprises suggest the odds warrant caution.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}