{
  "id": 18016424,
  "title": "US midterms: Prediction markets favor Democrats in key crypto races",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/03/us-midterms-prediction-markets-favor-democrats-in-key-crypto-races",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-11-03T19:38:19.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Cointelegraph",
    "slug": "cointelegraph",
    "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-midterm-prediction-markets"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "As US citizens prepare to cast their votes in the midterms on Tuesday, prediction markets are overwhelmingly forecasting a Democratic victory across key congressional races. Kalshi and Polymarket predict a 75% chance of a Democratic sweep, while traders have wagered nearly $1.9 billion on election-related contracts, marking record activity for a midterm election cycle.\n\nOn Kalshi, Democrats have a 93% chance of taking control of the House and a 75% chance of winning the Senate. Polymarket also prices those outcomes at 94.5% and 75.5%, respectively. The markets were up for sale nine days after the prediction models failed to predict Brazil's decisive presidential election, with incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva winning the runoff.\n\nFor the cryptocurrency industry, a change in congressional control could reshape prospects for regulatory clarity. The Senate seat in Ohio is a focal point, with Defend American Jobs, a super PAC backing Senator Jon Husted, spending $36.9 million against Democrat Sherrod Brown, who receives $19.7 million in support. Traders expect Brown to win, with 72% on Kalshi and 72.5% on Polymarket, aligning with a New York Times/Siena poll that shows him leading 49% to 44%.\n\nIn Maine, a Democratic win predicted by traders could bolster the crypto industry's influence in Washington. Democrat Troy Jackson has a 71% chance of unseating Susan Collins, a Republican Senator, according to Kalshi and Polymarket, in line with New York Times polls. Jackson is seen as supportive of crypto, potentially giving the industry another ally should he win.\n\nWhile many prediction markets align with polling results, they have been more definitive in three close states. In Alaska, Kalshi gives Democrat Mary Peltola a 71% chance of defeating Republican Dan Sullivan, despite a narrow 48% to 46% margin in the latest poll. Both candidates support crypto, according to Stand With Crypto.\n\nIn South Carolina, Republicans Senator Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews are tied at 48% in the polls. Kalshi gives Graham a 71% chance of winning, as she is a crypto supporter. In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek is predicted to overtake Republican Representative Ashley Hinson on Polymarket at 52%, after months of Hinson being the favored winner.\n\nBeyond today's vote, traders are considering potential outcomes following a Democratic Congress sweep. Polymarket’s conditional markets suggest a 35% probability of a US recession by the end of 2027 if Democrats control both chambers, compared to 19% if they do not.",
  "summary": "Kalshi and Polymarket price a 75% chance of a Democratic sweep, days after markets misjudged Brazil’s runoff.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 8,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "CNBC",
        "title": "Midterm elections could jolt stocks if Democrats sweep Congress",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/03/midterm-elections-could-jolt-stocks-if-democrats-sweep-congress",
        "published": "2026-11-03T11:54:28.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "Live Mint",
        "title": "US midterm elections 2026: Prediction markets bet on Democrats winning Senate; Republicans face tough battleground fight",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/03/us-midterm-elections-2026-prediction-markets-bet-on-democrats-winning",
        "published": "2026-11-03T11:55:01.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "Variety",
        "title": "Midterm Elections: Americans Have Wagered $1.9 Billion on Prediction Markets on U.S. Races — With Democrats Favored to Win House and Senate",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/03/midterm-elections-americans-have-wagered-1-9-billion-on-prediction",
        "published": "2026-11-03T14:05:56.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "Quartz",
        "title": "On Election Day, prediction markets show Democrats as heavy favorites to sweep Congress",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/03/on-election-day-prediction-markets-show-democrats-as-heavy-favorites",
        "published": "2026-11-03T14:25:50.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "Axios",
        "title": "Prediction markets have a lot riding on the blue wave",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/03/prediction-markets-have-a-lot-riding-on-the-blue-wave",
        "published": "2026-11-03T15:36:42.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "Hindustan Times - World News",
        "title": "US midterms 2026: Prediction markets and polls differ over Democrats' chances",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/03/us-midterms-2026-prediction-markets-and-polls-differ-over-democrats",
        "published": "2026-11-03T16:41:59.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "The Block",
        "title": "Prediction markets bet on Democratic sweep of House, Senate in midterm elections",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/03/prediction-markets-bet-on-democratic-sweep-of-house-senate-in-midterm",
        "published": "2026-11-03T18:30:31.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}