{
  "id": 17927702,
  "title": "Brent: Higher-for-longer price regime – TD Securities",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/03/brent-higher-for-longer-price-regime-td-securities",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-11-03T06:53:42.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-higher-for-longer-price-regime-td-securities-202611030653"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "TD Securities analyst Ryan McKay contends that Brent crude oil has entered a higher-for-longer price regime, with fair value estimated at $90-100 per barrel once the conflicts in Iran and the broader Middle East conclude. This range narrows to $80-90/bbl into the second half of 2027-2028. Persistent risk premiums, fragile Middle East flows, tight product markets, and recovering global demand serve as key factors supporting elevated Brent pricing. The market requires one to two years of surplus inventories to rebuild buffers. Recent attacks against Middle East flows have begun to weigh on short-term fundamentals, potentially leading to higher fair value estimates if disruptions persist. Without a resolution to the conflicts and Russia-Ukraine tensions, a $10-20/bbl risk premium above fair value remains plausible, keeping elevated prices in play for an extended period. However, if flows are significantly and sustainably reduced due to escalation, IRGC tanker attacks, or Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure, fair value could rise again. Without notable escalation and/or damage to Saudi infrastructure, price increases from current levels are limited due to normalized Middle East supply. The crude market remains highly sensitive to diplomacy developments and any signs of easing tensions. Additionally, high freight rates could negatively impact refiner margins, particularly in North West Europe, leading to potential production cuts. USD/JPY and Gold also saw declines during Tuesday's Asian session, influenced by factors such as the Australian Reserve Bank's rate hike, expectations of Iran diplomacy, and US Federal Reserve hawkishness.",
  "summary": "TD Securities’ Ryan McKay argues that Brent crude Oil is entering a higher-for-longer regime, with fair value estimated at $90-100/bbl once the Iran and broader Middle East conflicts conclude, narrowing to $80-90/bbl into H2 2027–2028.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}