{
  "id": 17830840,
  "title": "After The Bell: The wonderful and strange business of prognostication",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/02/after-the-bell-the-wonderful-and-strange-business-of-prognostication",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-11-02T17:58:51.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Daily Maverick",
    "slug": "daily-maverick",
    "url": "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2026-11-02-the-wonderful-and-strange-business-of-prognostication/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "As the world awaits the outcome of tonight's election, prognostication plays a significant role in shaping the minds of voters, businesses, and investors. Despite the inherent uncertainty of these predictions, people are constantly curious about what the future holds. This desire to know the future is what keeps journalists and analysts engaged in their work, as they strive to provide insight into the present and its potential impact on the future.\n\nConversations about the value of companies and sectors often revolve around predicting the future, with experts analyzing political and economic developments to determine potential outcomes. At the local level, such as South Africa's election, the intricacies of the polling process make it difficult to accurately forecast results. With multiple metropolitan areas to consider, running tracking polls becomes impractical, and voters may not always be certain of their intentions on election day.\n\nThe introduction of new political parties, such as the recently formed MK, can further complicate predictions. These parties' sudden rise can lead to skepticism among the public, as they may doubt the accuracy of polls predicting their success. This skepticism can be mirrored by political party leaders themselves, who may also be surprised by the actual election results.\n\nBusiness leaders and groups are heavily reliant on polling to gauge the potential for change in cities like Johannesburg. Therefore, they must consider the risks associated with forecasting, as the shock of deviating results can have significant consequences. In some cases, like Brazil's 2022 presidential election, where Flavio Bolsonaro was expected to win but Lula da Silva won instead, the market experienced a sharp 10% drop. This raises concerns about potential risks in the US market, as Democrats are favored to win the 2024 election, but the possibility of another shock cannot be ruled out.\n\nThe lack of consensus in forecast predictions can lead to increased uncertainty in the oil market. Currently, oil prices appear stable as it passes through the Strait of Hormuz, but any unexpected developments could cause prices to soar. Prognosticators must be cautious in their predictions, as the consequences of being wrong can be severe. Despite the inherent risks of prognostication, it remains an essential tool in understanding the present and shaping our future.",
  "summary": "Election predictions influence voters, businesses and investors, yet polling uncertainty and unexpected results show how dangerous prognostication can be.",
  "key_points": [
    "Prognostication influences voter, business, and investor decisions",
    "Predicting election outcomes is challenging due to multiple factors",
    "Market risks arise from unexpected election results"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}