{
  "id": 17772873,
  "title": "2026 set to be the world’s second-hottest year on record as El Niño drives August to an all-time high",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/11/02/2026-set-to-be-the-worlds-second-hottest-year-on-record-as-el-nino-17772873",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-11-02T08:08:58.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "MyJoyOnline Ghana",
    "slug": "myjoyonline-ghana",
    "url": "https://www.myjoyonline.com/2026-set-to-be-the-worlds-second-hottest-year-on-record-as-el-nino-drives-august-to-an-all-time-high/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "In the first ten months of 2026, Earth has experienced a higher average surface temperature than any other year on record, except for 2024, according to a JoyNews Research analysis of global temperature data. The average air temperature from January 1st to October 26th was 15.30°C, which is 0.64°C higher than the average for the same period between 1991 and 2020. Only 2024 surpassed 2026 during this timeframe, with a difference of 0.71°C. The figures are based on ERA5, a comprehensive record of global weather maintained by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service. This analysis was conducted days before world leaders convene in Antalya, Türkiye, for the COP31 climate summit, which takes place from November 9th to 20th.\n\nTo comprehend the significance of this 0.64°C increase, it is essential to understand that even a small rise in global temperature can have profound effects. For instance, Ghanaians, accustomed to daily temperature fluctuations, can relate to how a seemingly minor change can have substantial consequences. This average anomaly, representing the difference from the 1991-2020 norm, is calculated across the entire planet, encompassing all countries, oceans, days, and nights. Such an anomaly, indicated as +0.64°C in this context, signifies that the temperature is 0.64°C warmer than the average for that time of year across the globe.\n\nThroughout 2026, the temperature trend began modestly, ranking fourth or fifth from January to April, approximately 0.53°C above normal. However, a sharp upward shift occurred thereafter. May and June emerged as the second-warmest months on record. By August, the temperature had surged to rank first, with temperatures during the subsequent months of August to October averaging 0.85°C above normal, marking a 0.32°C increase from the initial four months of the year. This significant shift aligns with the onset of El Niño, a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon characterized by unusually warm surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator. This warming process releases additional heat into the atmosphere, thereby elevating global temperatures.\n\nThe US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported on October 8th that El Niño conditions were present, with a key Pacific Ocean temperature index measuring 2.1°C above normal. NOAA also indicated an 83% probability of a strong to very strong El Niño event persisting into early 2027. August 2026 emerged as the hottest August ever recorded, 0.84°C above normal, surpassing the previous record, shared by 2024 and 2023, by 0.13°C—a considerable margin in global temperature terms. August averaged 16.96°C, equating to the temperature of July 2023 and marking the hottest month in the entire record. Copernicus, the EU's climate service, corroborated this finding in its own monthly report, describing August as the joint-hottest month on record. September ranked as the second-warmest September, only trailing 2023. October is currently 0.01°C warmer than the same period in 2023, a margin too narrow to be considered significant.",
  "summary": "The world has been hotter in the first ten months of 2026 than in any other year on record except 2024, a JoyNews Research analysis of global temperature data shows.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}