{
  "id": 1742226,
  "title": "HUR: Russia seeks rest of Donetsk Oblast, not a peace deal, by year-end",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/18/hur-russia-seeks-rest-of-donetsk-oblast-not-a-peace-deal-by-year-end",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-08-18T15:48:33.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Euromaidan Press",
    "slug": "euromaidan-press",
    "url": "https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/08/18/hur-russia-no-peace-deal-2026/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Ukraine's military intelligence, known as HUR, believes Russia is intent on capturing the remaining territory of Donetsk Oblast rather than negotiating a peace deal before the end of 2026, according to a recent statement by deputy chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi. The intelligence agency does not anticipate a peace agreement being reached by year-end. Skibitskyi revealed that Russia's General Staff aims to seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast by the end of the year. HUR has estimated that Russia's troop losses have surpassed its recruitment efforts in June and July, leaving Moscow unable to form new military units without resorting to mobilization. Specifically, Russia lost 3,000 personnel in June and at least 1,000 in July, exceeding the number of new recruits by a significant margin. The agency asserts that Russia's operational reserve is only about one-tenth of the force engaged in combat against Ukraine. Furthermore, Russia has set a goal to recruit 409,000 personnel for 2026, but without the implementation of mobilization, the country will be unable to create new formations or transform existing brigades into divisions due to a lack of manpower, Skibitskyi explained. The Russian command is striving to fill the manpower gap by incorporating personnel from other military branches, but only 30% of the unmanned-systems forces recruitment plan has been completed. Should Russia choose to mobilize following its September parliamentary elections, it could assemble a formidable strike group by early 2027, according to HUR's projections. However, Skibitskyi did not rule out the possibility of using these units for a northern offensive campaign. At present, the intelligence agency does not perceive any conditions, indicators, or sufficient troop numbers to support such an operation. Russia had initially targeted September for the capture of Donbas, but has missed its deadlines to take Kostiantynivka and Druzhkivka. In April, Skibitskyi informed the Financial Times that Moscow intended to capture all of Donbas by September following its missed targets for Kostiantynivka and Druzhkivka. By early August, Russia had transferred 20,000 troops from strategic reserves to fuel the offensive, though this amounted to less than one month's worth of its battlefield losses. By early August, DeepState reported that Russian forces gained an additional 36 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in July, which included map corrections for May and June. Without these corrections, Russia had only gained about 88 square kilometers. DeepState also noted limited progress near Rodynske, Kostiantynivka, Sloviansk, and Kramatorsk, the core of Ukraine's \"fortress belt.\" At the present rate of advancement, Russia has \"no chance\" of capturing all of Donetsk Oblast by 2027, according to the group. They cautioned that a resurgence in mobilization or the deployment of North Korean troops could alter this forecast.",
  "summary": "HUR's deputy chief says Russia cannot form new units without mobilization after battlefield losses exceeded contract recruitment in June and July",
  "key_points": [
    "Russia aims to capture remaining Donetsk Oblast by year-end, not a peace deal.",
    "HUR estimates Russia lost 4,000 personnel in June and July, surpassing recruitment.",
    "Russia's operational reserve is only about 10% of forces engaged in Ukraine."
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}