{
  "id": 17204293,
  "title": "Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the fourth quarter of 2026",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/30/results-of-the-ecb-survey-of-professional-forecasters-for-the-fourth",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-30T09:00:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "ECB Press",
    "slug": "ecb-press",
    "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.pr261030~e92c3c838c.en.html"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The European Central Bank (ECB) has released the results of its latest survey of professional forecasters for the fourth quarter of 2026. The survey indicates that respondents expect headline inflation, measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), to average 3.0% in 2026, 2.6% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028. This marks a revision upwards of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points for 2026 and 2027 respectively, compared to the previous round, but no change for 2028.\n\nThe survey also shows that longer-term expectations for 2031 remain unchanged, with both headline and core inflation projected at 2.0%. A separate question on the impact of the war in the Middle East revealed that respondents anticipate additional effects of the energy price shock primarily for 2027, with limited second-round effects thereafter. Overall, the risk balance for inflation expectations is tilted to the upside for 2026-28, but remains more balanced in the longer term.\n\nIn terms of real GDP growth, respondents expect it to be 1.0% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027 and 2028. These expectations have been revised up by 0.4 percentage points for 2026 and 0.1 percentage points for 2027 compared to the previous survey, while remaining unchanged for 2028. Longer-term growth expectations for 2031 have also been revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3%. The risk balance for growth expectations is somewhat tilted to the downside for all horizons.\n\nUnemployment rate expectations are slightly higher for 2026, at 6.4%, before gradually decreasing to 6.1% in the longer term. For media inquiries, readers can contact William Lelieveldt at +49 69 1344 7316. Reproduction of this story is permitted as long as the source is credited. The ECB utilizes functional, analytics, and third-party cookies to store user preferences, improve website performance, and gather data for website optimization. Users can choose to accept or reject these cookies through the website's privacy statement and cookie preferences page.",
  "summary": null,
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}