{
  "id": 17203233,
  "title": "Poll: Americans don’t trust polls",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/30/poll-americans-dont-trust-polls",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-10-30T09:00:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "POLITICO",
    "slug": "politico",
    "url": "https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/30/poll-americans-dont-trust-polls-01141115"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "A recent poll reveals that a significant portion of Americans lack trust in political surveys. Only 25% of respondents believe that these surveys accurately predict election outcomes, according to a new POLITICO Poll conducted by PF Global. The polling industry is facing heightened scrutiny as it struggles to connect with Republican voters during the 2026 midterm cycle. Many races are within the margin of error in key battlegrounds and once-safe red territories, leading to widespread disbelief in the polls.\n\nApproximately one in four respondents claims that polls suggesting a blue wave in November are incorrect, and they expect Republicans to win key races. Moreover, 41% of Americans believe that polls tend to underestimate either Democrats or Republicans. High-profile blunders have further eroded trust, such as polls incorrectly predicting Francesca Hong's victory in the Wisconsin governor race and Abdul El-Sayed's narrower-than-expected win in the Michigan Senate race.\n\nPoliticians like Speaker Mike Johnson and Vice President JD Vance have dismissed the latest forecasts, claiming that Republicans are \"grossly underestimated\" in enthusiasm and participation. President Donald Trump has labeled polls as \"fake\" and \"rigged,\" while Vice President JD Vance advises people to ignore them due to their demotivating effect.\n\nPollsters acknowledge the challenges they face, but insist that polls remain essential despite the difficulties. Changes have been made over the years to improve methodology, such as capturing respondents from diverse educational backgrounds and adjusting for low response rates in specific groups. However, distrust is particularly strong among Trump supporters, with 60% of MAGA Republicans believing that polls indicating Democratic victories are wrong.\n\nThe distrust extends beyond Republicans, as many in both parties were outraged by Wedgewood Polls admitting to using fake data in its polling results during Democratic primaries. Another incident involved fake polling data being published on the Los Angeles mayoral race to test its potential impact. Roughly a third of Kamala Harris voters also believe that polls underestimate Democrats.\n\nPolls are intended to provide a snapshot of public sentiment at a given moment, and people can change their minds. One in five Americans admitted to filling out a poll with a different response than they eventually selected. Despite the controversies, polls still influence voters' decisions. Roughly 55% of Americans say they would vote if the polls showed their preferred candidate far behind, even among Republican midterm voters who believe polls underestimate their party.",
  "summary": "New data from the POLITICO Poll shows just how far the industry has to go to convince a wary public.",
  "key_points": [
    "Only 25% of Americans trust polls to accurately predict election outcomes.",
    "High-profile polling errors, like Francesca Hong's victory in Wisconsin, have eroded trust."
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}