{
  "id": 17099924,
  "title": "Israel’s exit polls may have ‘fundamental problem’ after Netanyahu bloc surprise, pollster says",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/29/israels-exit-polls-may-have-fundamental-problem-after-netanyahu-bloc",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-10-29T18:20:51.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Jerusalem Post",
    "slug": "jerusalem-post",
    "url": "https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-913271"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Dr. Menachem Lazar, CEO of Lazar Research and Maariv’s pollster, admitted on 103FM that Israeli pollsters significantly underestimated Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political bloc in the latest election. Lazar emphasized that there is no room for doubt: \"The pollsters were wrong, all of them. Some more than others, but there was a mistake. A serious mistake.\"\n\nLazar explained that the discrepancies between the polls and the election results indicated a fundamental problem. According to him, the pollsters underestimated Netanyahu's strength and distribution of polling stations may have played a role. He also noted that there may be a fundamental issue with how Israeli voters behave before elections.\n\nLazar defended the intentions of the pollsters, stating that everything will head in that direction. He acknowledged that there are more serious things to examine, but emphasized that they always review their methods after each election campaign. Lazar assured that previous discrepancies, such as the 2015 election, were corrected in subsequent election campaigns.\n\nAdditionally, Lazar discussed the potential impact of double-envelope ballots on the final distribution of Knesset seats. He believed that the Arab parties could lose one or two seats, while the Jewish Home party, Naftali Bennett, and Meretz may gain seats, potentially reaching the electoral threshold. Lazar noted that there is a certain chance these parties could secure the threshold, as they are short by a few thousand votes. However, Lazar emphasized that the overall election picture is relatively clear and that there is a possibility that new elections might be called.",
  "summary": "Uncounted double-envelope ballots could still push the Reservists’ Party and the Economic Party over the threshold, a top pollster says.",
  "key_points": [
    "Israeli pollsters underestimated Netanyahu's bloc significantly in the latest election.",
    "Discrepancies between polls and results suggest a fundamental problem with pollsters' methods."
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": "https://urgent.news/ill/17099924.png",
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 4,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "The Indian Express",
        "title": "Israel election results 2026: Netanyahu vs Gadi Eisenkot, who is winning, who is losing, live map, party-wise results, vote counts",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/29/israel-election-results-2026-netanyahu-vs-gadi-eisenkot-who-is",
        "published": "2026-10-29T17:17:02.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "Times of India",
        "title": "Israel election: Netanyahu's bloc wins 53 seats, falls short of majority as coalition talks loom",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/29/israel-election-netanyahus-bloc-wins-53-seats-falls-short-of-majority",
        "published": "2026-10-29T18:10:38.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "Haaretz",
        "title": "Israel's opposition won the numbers to defeat Netanyahu. It may defeat itself instead",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/29/israels-opposition-won-the-numbers-to-defeat-netanyahu-it-may-defeat",
        "published": "2026-10-29T19:04:31.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}