{
  "id": 17061561,
  "title": "Ukraine National Bank cuts forecast: GDP to drop 0.4% in 2026 with 12.5% inflation, rise 0.4% in 2027 with 7.3% inflation",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/29/ukraine-national-bank-cuts-forecast-gdp-to-drop-0-4-in-2026-with-12-5",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-10-29T12:54:41.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Interfax-Ukraine",
    "slug": "interfax-ukraine",
    "url": "https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/1228123.html"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Ukraine's National Bank has significantly revised its economic forecasts, predicting a 0.4% contraction in GDP for 2026, followed by a mere 0.4% growth in 2027. Inflation is expected to surge to 12.5% in 2026 from 10.0%, driven by the ongoing conflict, fuel price hikes, and damage to logistics infrastructure. The bank attributes the GDP downgrade to a 1.9 percentage point impact of intensified shelling, with industrial sectors and trade hardest hit. However, a revival is anticipated in 2027, fueled by defense industry investments and infrastructure restoration. Nominal GDP estimates also saw a downward adjustment, from UAH 10.065 trillion in 2026 to UAH 10.01 trillion, and from UAH 11.22 trillion in 2027 to UAH 11.135 trillion.",
  "summary": "The National Bank of Ukraine has substantially downgraded its forecast for gross domestic product (GDP), shifting from expectations of growth of 1.8% this year and 2.8% next year to a projected contraction of 0.4% this year, followed by a recovery of just 0.4% next year.",
  "key_points": [
    "Ukraine's National Bank cuts GDP growth forecast to 0.4% in 2026",
    "Inflation expected to rise to 12.5% in 2026 from 10.0%",
    "2027 growth projected at 0.4% with defense industry investments"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}