{
  "id": 17034670,
  "title": "Euro: ECB tone watched on France – ING",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/29/euro-ecb-tone-watched-on-france-ing",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-29T08:16:56.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-ecb-tone-watched-on-france-ing-202610290816"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "ING’s Francesco Pesole anticipates the European Central Bank to maintain current interest rates during its event on Thursday, and does not believe the stress in France’s bond market is enough to prompt a softer stance, despite high oil and gas prices. Markets are pricing in a potential rate hike in December, but ING expects a cautious announcement. The bank foresees EUR/USD staying above 1.110, with US economic data possibly exerting only modest downward pressure. The ECB is likely to keep rates unchanged today; four scenarios have been outlined in their ECB cheat sheet, with three predicting a hold and one suggesting a rate hike. Their baseline view remains neutral. Pesole believes French bond market turmoil is not sufficient to trigger a significant dovish shift by the ECB, especially with high oil and gas prices. The market reaction is expected to be largely driven by the ECB’s tone regarding France and the likelihood of another rate increase this year. Markets have priced in a 21bp increase for December, and in September, officials hinted at a potential rate hike by the end of the year. Either way, the bank doesn’t expect this meeting to be a turning point for the euro. EUR/USD has not yet broken below 1.110, and today’s ECB event is not anticipated to trigger a significant decline. A slightly stronger dollar on US data may, however, maintain some downward pressure on the pair. A message signaling a \"likely\" rate hike in December would be considered a modest hawkish surprise, but a less committed outlook is more probable, possibly indicating a \"possible\" or \"in play\" hike.",
  "summary": "ING’s Francesco Pesole expects the European Central Bank to keep rates unchanged and does not see French bond market stress as sufficient to trigger a dovish pivot, given high Oil and gas prices. Markets price some chance of a December hike, but ING anticipates a cautious communication. The bank sees EUR/USD holding above 1.110, with US data potentially exerting modest downside pressure.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}