{
  "id": 17001323,
  "title": "Global commodity prices to surge 23pc in 2026, warns World Bank",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/29/global-commodity-prices-to-surge-23pc-in-2026-warns-world-bank",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-29T03:35:53.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Dawn Business",
    "slug": "dawn-business",
    "url": "https://www.dawn.com/news/2040654/global-commodity-prices-to-surge-23pc-in-2026-warns-world-bank"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The World Bank has forecasted a 23% increase in global commodity prices in 2026, attributing the rise to surging energy costs, disruptions in cargo shipping due to the Middle East war, challenges in grain transportation through the Black Sea, and heightened demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. Oil, natural gas, food, and metal prices had all seen significant hikes this year due to mounting global shocks, according to the World Bank's latest Commodity Markets Outlook. The bank warns that the situation could deteriorate further if tensions in the Middle East escalate and damage persists to Russian oil infrastructure. While commodity prices are expected to ease by 7% next year, ongoing disruptions and potential extreme weather events, including the worst El Nino in 50 years, could maintain high food commodity prices, potentially leading to increased inflation and tighter monetary policies. The global economy is currently more susceptible to future supply shocks. Global oil reserves have dwindled owing to the conflict in the Middle East, and global oil supply is projected to decrease by 5.2% in 2026, the largest decline in four decades following the 2020 global recession. Energy prices are anticipated to surge 32%, metals prices 25%, and gold 40% in 2026, while food prices may face a threat from the El Nino effect. Commodity markets are currently experiencing simultaneous major shocks, according to Ayhan Kose, the World Bank's deputy chief economist. He emphasized that higher energy costs and trade disruptions are driving up prices across a broad spectrum of commodities, potentially exacerbating inflation, food insecurity, and economic growth. The World Bank has released its twice-yearly report, just days before foreign ministers from the G20 nations convene in Atlanta, Georgia, to discuss the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. Kose highlighted the bank's focus on safeguarding the world's poorest populations and assisting low-income countries grappling with substantial debt burdens. So far, the bank has extended $8.7 billion in low-interest loans and additional aid to 25 countries adversely impacted by the Middle East war, including 10 countries that adapted their existing programs to cover crisis-related expenses and 19 nations that tapped new resources, employing some combination of both. The report, released biannually, revealed that global energy prices increased by 32% in 2026, reaching their highest level since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. With dwindling oil production, Brent oil prices are expected to remain elevated this year, averaging $92 per barrel. Prices may soar even higher if oil demand does not decline by 2.5%, the third-largest drop since the 2020 Covid shock and the 1980 oil crisis. Food commodity prices are forecasted to rise by just over 10% in 2026 due to disruptions in grain shipments stemming from hostilities between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea, and an additional 7% or more in 2027, resulting in a combined increase of nearly 18%. In a worst-case scenario involving a record El Nino, further Black Sea grain shipment disruptions, intensifying conflict in the Middle East, and ongoing damage to Russian oil infrastructure, food prices could be 12% higher than projected, potentially sparking a food crisis reminiscent of the early 2010s, when over 40 million individuals fell into extreme poverty. Fertilizer prices are expected to climb by 14% in 2026, only to revert to 2025 levels in 2027. Metal prices are projected to surge by 25% and hit a new high in 2026, with aluminum, copper, and tin setting record highs due to supply disruptions and robust demand from investments in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and data centers. Precious metal prices are expected to jump by 40% in 2026, driven by heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and policy uncertainty, with some moderation anticipated in 2027.",
  "summary": "https://www.dawn.com/news/2040573/commodity-prices-to-surge-23pc-warns-world-bank",
  "key_points": [
    "Global commodity prices forecasted to rise 23% in 2026",
    "Energy costs, shipping disruptions, Black Sea grain challenges cited",
    "Food prices may surge 10% in 2026, 18% by 2027"
  ],
  "editors_take": "Persistent geopolitical conflicts and climate disruptions are converging to threaten global food security and drive inflation through a massive spike in essential commodity costs.",
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}