{
  "id": 16907240,
  "title": "Inflation set to hit 5% by year-end as fuel price hikes take hold, but it's not all bad news",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/28/inflation-set-to-hit-5-by-year-end-as-fuel-price-hikes-take-hold-but",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-28T13:45:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "IOL",
    "slug": "iol",
    "url": "https://iol.co.za/business/economy/2026-10-28-inflation-set-to-hit-5-by-year-end-as-fuel-price-hikes-take-effect-but-its-not-all-bad-news/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "South Africa's inflation rate has been steadily increasing this year, reaching just above 4.0% year-on-year according to the latest data from Statistics South Africa. The recent surge in fuel prices has driven the consumer price index (CPI) inflation to 4.5% in September, with economists forecasting it to climb to around 5% by the end of the year. Investec's chief economist Annabel Bishop anticipates the year-on-year CPI inflation to hit near 5.0% in late 2026 and January 2027. However, a significant decline in inflation is expected in the second quarter of 2027, reaching 3.0% by June. This is due to the figures being set by a high base from fuel price inflation in the second quarter of 2026. The prediction also hinges on containing fuel price increases during the first half of 2027. Positive news for consumers is that the expectations of further interest rate hikes have diminished, with no rate increase anticipated at the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in November. Economists Johann Els and Izak Odendaal from PSG and Old Mutual Wealth also predict a rate hold for next month, stating that another increase would be unnecessary as the fuel-driven spike is expected to fade eventually. The length of the Middle East war and its impact on oil and fuel prices globally will largely determine the future of inflation in South Africa. While temporary fuel levy cuts are anticipated to offer relief towards year-end, the October petrol price increase of R3.33 per litre is expected to contribute around 0.5% month-on-month to CPI. On a positive note, food price inflation has remained relatively low at about 1.0% year-on-year, thanks to the benefits of La Niña earlier in the year. Meat inflation has also decreased sharply following the containment of the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak.",
  "summary": "South Africa’s inflation could approach 5% by year-end as fuel price increases feed through, but economists expect rates to remain unchanged at the Reserve Bank’s November meeting.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}