{
  "id": 16879464,
  "title": "How accurate is IPO GMP? We checked all 294 Indian IPOs listed in 2026",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/28/how-accurate-is-ipo-gmp-we-checked-all-294-indian-ipos-listed-in-2026",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-28T09:39:26.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Dev.to",
    "slug": "dev-to",
    "url": "https://dev.to/datadaemon/how-accurate-is-ipo-gmp-we-checked-all-294-indian-ipos-listed-in-2026-4bdg"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Grey market premium (GMP) is an unofficial price at which Indian IPO shares trade before their listing on the stock exchange. Investors use it as a forecast of the listing gain, with a GMP of ₹50 on a ₹500 issue suggesting a potential opening price of ₹550, which is a 10% gain. To evaluate the accuracy of GMP forecasts, researchers compared the GMP for every IPO listed on BSE or NSE in 2026 to the actual listing price for a total of 294 IPOs (109 mainboard and 185 SME issues) listed between January 2 and October 28, 2026. As of October 28, 2026, the findings indicate that GMP is generally a reliable guide. The correlation between GMP percentage and listing gain percentage is 0.88, and the median miss (the difference between listing gain and GMP) is zero, meaning approximately half of the IPOs listed below their GMP and half listed above it. The typical miss in the listing gain is 8.6 percentage points. For instance, the actual listing gain was within ±5 points of the GMP for 51% of IPOs and within ±10 points for 69% of them. Mainboard GMP tends to be more accurate than SME GMP, with an average miss of 7.0 points for SMEs (63% within ±10 points) compared to 7.0 points for mainboard issues (80% within ±10 points). IPOs with an issue size of ₹1,000 crore or more were the most accurate, with an average miss of 6.1 points and a correlation of 0.93. Notably, a GMP above 25% never resulted in a listing price below the issue price in 2026, while a GMP of zero led to a listing below the issue price in 44% of cases. The investigation also highlighted three factors that affect GMP accuracy: SME IPOs at the 90% cap, thin premiums on mainboard issues, and very hot issues with high subscription rates.",
  "summary": "The grey market premium (GMP) is the unofficial price at which an Indian IPO's shares trade before they list. Investors read it as a forecast of the listing gain: a GMP of ₹50 on a ₹500 issue suggests the stock will open around ₹550, a 10% gain. How good is that forecast? I compared the last GMP before listing with the actual listing price for every IPO that listed on BSE or NSE in 2026 so far:…",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}