{
  "id": 16820062,
  "title": "What needs to change in research",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/28/o-que-precisa-mudar-nas-pesquisas",
  "topic": "business",
  "section": "Business",
  "published": "2026-10-28T00:03:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Brazil Journal",
    "slug": "brazil-journal",
    "url": "https://braziljournal.com/o-que-precisa-mudar-nas-pesquisas"
  },
  "original_language": "pt",
  "account": "Brazilian President Lula was re-elected with 51.79% of valid votes, a 4.4 million vote lead, surprising most research institutes who had predicted Flávio Bolsonaro's victory. Institutes such as Ibope and Ipsos cited factors like rapid changes in voter opinion, difficulties in measuring voter turnout, and the impact of social media on voters. Some experts, including Carlos Augusto Montenegro and Renato Meirelles, suggest combining different methodologies and gathering more continuous data to improve the accuracy of future polls. Clifford Young of Ipsos notes that the industry may need to reassess its methods, particularly in capturing differential turnout, where voter mobilization affects election results.",
  "summary": "All the research institutes pointed to Flávio Bolsonaro as the winner of Sunday's election. Prediction markets were even more optimistic about the senator: platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi even assigned probabilities of over 80% to his victory.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": "The failure to capture rapid voter shifts and turnout fluctuations forces polling institutions to move beyond simple intent toward more complex, qualitative models that track individual volatility.",
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}