{
  "id": 16787439,
  "title": "The Diesel Crisis Is Here To Stay",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/27/the-diesel-crisis-is-here-to-stay",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-27T19:00:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "OilPrice",
    "slug": "oilprice",
    "url": "https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Diesel-Crisis-Is-Here-To-Stay.html"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The diesel crunch is set to continue well into 2027, according to analysts, as supply remains constrained by the Middle East conflict and damaged Russian refineries. Efforts to temporarily boost supply, such as the recent deal between the U.S. and Russia, are unlikely to make a significant impact in the already tight global market. Full recovery of Middle Eastern refineries, damaged by Iranian strikes, and the return of Russian diesel exports are necessary to restore diesel supply levels to pre-2025. While the rest of the world, including the U.S., is operating at full capacity, it cannot fully compensate for the lost supply. Refineries outside the Middle East and Russia have pushed maintenance operations back to maximize diesel production, but scheduled maintenance cannot be indefinitely postponed without risking malfunctions and unplanned shutdowns. The Strait of Hormuz, responsible for much of the world's crude oil and fuel exports, has seen a partial recovery in flows to nearly pre-war levels; however, exports remain limited and more hazardous due to increased flammability and smaller tanker sizes. Iranian strikes have also damaged Bapco in Bahrain and Saudi Aramco's Jizan refinery, further limiting fuel exports. Russia's diesel exports are in crisis, with half of its refineries offline due to drone attacks, leading to a domestic fuel crisis and a ban on diesel exports - a ban that has since been partially lifted. The first ship carrying about 40,000 metric tons of ultra-low sulfur diesel to the U.S. departed from Russia's Baltic Sea port of Primorsk last week, but only ships a tenth of what the U.S. consumes daily. Experts, including Robin Mills from Qamar Energy, acknowledge that the diesel deal will have minimal effects on global supply and prices, particularly before the U.S. midterm elections. Demand-side solutions, such as heavy-duty vehicles running on natural gas, public transportation switching to gas or electric power, and promoting electric vehicles, are seen as the primary means to alleviate the upward pressure on diesel prices as winter approaches. However, these solutions do not offer immediate relief, and global fuel markets are expected to remain tight until at least mid-2027.",
  "summary": "The diesel crunch is set to persist well into 2027 as supply remains limited by the Middle East conflict and the damaged Russian refineries, analysts say. Attempts at transient small supply-side solutions like the Trump-Putin diesel deal are not expected to move the needle in the very tight global market. Until refineries in the Middle East, damaged by Iranian strikes, return to full operations,…",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}