{
  "id": 16783302,
  "title": "Top data scientist sees Republican Senate chances rise slightly, but model still predicts that Democrats will flip 5 seats",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/27/top-data-scientist-sees-republican-senate-chances-rise-slightly-but",
  "topic": "science",
  "section": "Science",
  "published": "2026-10-27T18:16:03.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Fortune",
    "slug": "fortune",
    "url": "https://fortune.com/2026/10/27/democrats-odds-flipping-senate-what-states-are-in-play/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Data scientist Thomas Miller, a professor at Northwestern University, has been tracking Senate race forecasts on Virtualtout.io, a predictions site. Initially forecasting Democratic wins in Georgia's Senate races during January 2021, Miller's model also predicted a Trump victory in 2024. For current races, Miller uses prices from two trading platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, to calculate a percentage probability of victory or defeat. A notable factor influencing these probabilities is Donald Trump's actions and statements; a change in sentiment due to his words can impact the Republican numbers across all states. Virtualtout.io displays a live \"ticker tape\" showing odds for all 35 Senate races, updated every 10 minutes, and also indicating the change in percentages over the past 24 hours. Miller's data is more up-to-date than traditional polling methods, which consider voter preferences several days before the election day. Based on the current odds, Miller predicts Democrats have a strong chance of flipping seats in five states, shifting the current Republican 53-47 lead to a Democratic 52-48 lead. Starting at 34.8% on September 17, the probability of Republicans keeping control has now dropped to 23.3%. However, the Republicans' odds have improved slightly, rising by 2 points from an all-time low of 21.3% on October 24. In three states - Texas, Maine, and Michigan - Miller's model shows the Republicans having better chances than previously estimated, while the Democrats still maintain a favorable edge in these states. While the Republican chances in North Carolina, Ohio, and Alaska remain remote, Texas and Maine have seen improvements in their Republican odds, rising from 34.2% on October 24 to 36.4% on October 26, and from 32% to 37.9% respectively. The Republicans still hold roughly one-in-three chances of winning in four states, so the Democrats' victory remains far from certain.",
  "summary": "A prediction-market model built by a Northwestern data scientist shows Democrats favored to flip the Senate, but GOP odds have ticked up in Texas, Maine and Michigan.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}