{
  "id": 1676607,
  "title": "Euro: Overvaluation and energy risks weigh against US Dollar – MUFG",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/18/euro-overvaluation-and-energy-risks-weigh-against-us-dollar-mufg",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-08-18T08:36:52.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-overvaluation-and-energy-risks-weigh-against-us-dollar-mufg-202608180836"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "MUFG’s Halpenny highlights that the EUR/USD pair remains constrained near its 200-day moving average at 1.1630 and is approximately 2.5%-3.0% overvalued according to the bank's short-term model. He cautions that drivers of energy growth and general inflation pressures might be detrimental to the Euro's yield support, potentially leading to underperformance. The growing negative sentiment surrounding the US Dollar following recent data releases, which has somewhat alleviated expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, has not resulted in a significant sell-off. In fact, the DXY (US Dollar Index) remains supported above its 200-day moving average level of 99.185. A breach of this level could further strengthen the dollar trend and intensify the EUR/USD decline. Given that the Euro is a key component of the DXY basket, its 200-day moving average level of 1.1630 serves as a parallel resistance point. The bank's short-term regression model forecasts that the EUR/USD spot rate is currently around 2.5%-3.0% overvalued, and should these factors negatively influence sentiment and economic activity, the Euro might start to underperform. Today's ZEW Expectations index will be crucial in determining whether these risks are starting to impact sentiment and economic activity, potentially signaling mounting downside risks for the Euro in the months ahead.",
  "summary": "MUFG’s Halpenny notes that EUR/USD remains capped near its 200-day moving average at 1.1630 and is 2.5%-3.0% overvalued in the bank’s short-term model.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}