{
  "id": 16714896,
  "title": "Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? What History Says a $10,000 Investment in an S&P 500 ETF Could Be Worth at the End of 2027.",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/27/is-a-stock-market-crash-coming-what-history-says-a-10-000-investment",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-27T05:00:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Motley Fool",
    "slug": "motley-fool",
    "url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/27/is-a-stock-market-crash-coming-what-history-says-a/?source=iedfolrf0000001"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "In recent times, there is growing apprehension about a potential stock market crash, fueled by the formation of an AI bubble. If this bubble were to burst, a $10,000 investment in an S&P 500 ETF like VOO could see a significant decline, potentially worth around $7,000 at the end of 2027, according to historical precedents. However, this is not the only potential outcome, as we are currently witnessing a strong period for stocks. While the average bull market since 1942 has lasted over four years, bear markets have typically lasted only over 11 months. The average loss during these bear markets has been 31.7%, according to data from First Trust and Bloomberg.\n\nRecently, the AI-driven market has been likened to the dot-com boom and subsequent crash, which saw the S&P 500 plummet nearly 37% in about one and a half years. However, there are notable differences between these two market scenarios. Today's S&P 500 is heavily weighted towards AI stocks, such as cloud computing companies, which are rapidly spending on AI and generally see quick paybacks. This is in contrast to the earlier internet boom, which was fueled by telecom and cable companies and had relatively slow payback periods. Furthermore, today's tech stocks are trading at a much lower valuation compared to the dot-com boom, with the technology sector trading at a forward P/E of around 19 times, significantly lower than the 48 times it was valued at during the dot-com boom.\n\nThe AI boom is being primarily fueled by megacap tech companies, with cloud computing companies leading the spending, which depreciates much more quickly than the long-term assets of the dot-com boom. As long as end-user demand and token monetization continue to outpace depreciation, the AI flywheel will continue. However, if revenue growth slows, the hardware refresh cycle may not, leading to a significant squeeze in margins. Despite these risks, it appears that a market crash next year is unlikely, as the market is entering what is historically a very strong period for stocks. Following midterm elections, the S&P 500 has risen 95% of the time over the next 12 months, and from November to November of the following year, it has generated an average return of 14.5% since 1950. Therefore, it may be wise to continue dollar-cost averaging into an S&P 500 ETF like VOO, regardless of market conditions, to build long-term wealth.",
  "summary": "The bursting of an AI bubble would sink the S&P 500, but don't count on it happening just yet.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}