{
  "id": 1668382,
  "title": "India’s Economic Growth Projected To Slow To 6.8% In FY27 Amid West Asia Crisis & El Niño Impact",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/18/indias-economic-growth-projected-to-slow-to-6-8-in-fy27-amid-west",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-08-18T08:05:55.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Free Press Journal",
    "slug": "free-press-journal",
    "url": "https://www.freepressjournal.in/business/indias-economic-growth-projected-to-slow-to-68-in-fy27-amid-west-asia-crisis-el-nio-impact"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "India's economic growth is expected to decelerate to 6.8% in the fiscal year 2027 (FY27), according to India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra). This projection is lower than the 7.6% growth rate experienced in the previous fiscal year. The downgrade is primarily due to risks stemming from fuel and food inflation, driven by uncertainty surrounding the conflict in West Asia, a weakened currency, and the anticipated impact of El Niño on agriculture.\n\nInd-Ra's outlook for FY27 GDP growth has improved compared to their earlier May forecast of 6.7%. The agency now anticipates average crude oil prices at $85 per barrel for 2027, down from $95 per barrel in May 2026. They also predict a depreciation of the Indian rupee against the US dollar, averaging Rs 93.98 (compared to Rs 94.28 in May 2026) - a 6.4% decline year-over-year.\n\nThe projected slowdown in GDP growth is attributed to higher fuel and food inflation resulting from geopolitical tensions in West Asia, a weaker currency, and the likely effects of El Niño on agricultural productivity. Ind-Ra's forecast for FY27 quarterly GDP growth is 6.9%, 6.6%, 6.7%, and 6.9% for the April-June, July-September, October-December, and January-March quarters, respectively. This differs from the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) projections of 7%, 6.4%, 6.5%, and 6.8% for the same periods.\n\nInd-Ra's Chief Economist and Head of Public Finance, Devendra Pant, highlights that the lower crude oil prices will positively impact the Indian economy by reducing the trade/current account deficit (CAD). However, higher inflation due to El Niño may limit the upside growth from reduced oil prices. Ind-Ra forecasts retail inflation to average 4.9% for FY27, up from 2% in FY26, and estimates the current account deficit to increase to 1.5% of GDP from 0.6% in FY26.\n\nReaching the fiscal deficit target of 4.3% for FY27 is challenging due to subsidies on liquefied petroleum gas and fertilizers. While direct tax collection and non-tax revenue may help achieve the fiscal deficit target, indirect tax collection may pose difficulties, according to Pant.",
  "summary": "New Delhi: India Ratings & Research on Tuesday projected India's GDP growth to slow down to 6.8 per cent in the current fiscal year, as against 7.6 per cent in the previous year, citing risks from fuel and food inflation stemming from West Asia conflict's uncertainty, weak currency, and the likely impact of El Niño on agriculture. The FY27 GDP growth projection at 6.8 per cent is a tad higher…",
  "key_points": [
    "India's economic growth projected to slow to 6.8% in FY27",
    "Decline due to fuel and food inflation from West Asia crisis, El Niño impact",
    "Ind-Ra forecasts retail inflation at 4.9% for FY27"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}