{
  "id": 16681785,
  "title": "SBP revises remittance, forex projections upward",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/26/sbp-revises-remittance-forex-projections-upward",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-26T23:30:25.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Business Recorder",
    "slug": "business-recorder",
    "url": "https://www.brecorder.com/news/40446080/sbp-revises-remittance-forex-projections-upward"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Karachi: The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has raised its forecast for remittances and foreign exchange reserves, signaling improved inflows and a robust external account outlook. Speaking at a press conference on the monetary policy decision, SBP Governor Jameel Ahmed highlighted that Pakistan's external account position had significantly improved, indicating the nation was no longer in the danger zone. He revealed that workers' remittances had remained robust during the first quarter of the current fiscal year (FY27) and were projected to exceed initial estimates. \"Workers' remittances are expected to rise further, with Pakistan's inflows forecasted at USD 45 billion for the current fiscal year, up from the previous estimate of USD 44 billion,\" he stated.\n\nMoreover, exports are rebounding, primarily driven by rice, HVA textiles, and services exports, with Pakistan's exports anticipated to fall between USD 32.5 to USD 33 billion in FY27. Simultaneously, imports are also surging, propelled by non-energy imports due to economic recovery and higher prices, leading to an expected import bill of USD 71 billion in FY27. Based on these developments, the Governor SBP projected that the current account deficit for FY27 would remain within the earlier range of 0-1 percent of GDP. He shared that SBP's foreign exchange reserves had dwindled to USD 2.8 billion a few years ago but have since risen to USD 21.5 billion, sufficient to cover roughly three months of imports, meeting international standards. Governor Ahmed expressed confidence that the reserves would continue to strengthen, with the SBP maintaining momentum in foreign exchange accumulation. He assured that along with higher financial inflows and a controlled current account deficit, SBP's FX reserves were expected to surpass the current level. He projected that by the end of December 2026, SBP's foreign exchange reserves would surge to USD 23 billion and reach USD 25 billion by June 2027, taking into account external debt repayments and financing needs for the current account deficit. However, he cautioned that this outlook remained vulnerable to multiple risks, including rising global commodity prices, tighter international financial conditions, and supply constraints. He emphasized that a market-based exchange rate was crucial for bolstering foreign exchange reserves, along with the rise in workers' remittances.\n\nHighlighting Pakistan's economic growth, Governor Ahmed noted that the economy grew by an average of 4.2 percent during the first three quarters of FY26 but decelerated in the final quarter due to global conflicts, reducing the overall growth rate to 3.7 percent. While first-quarter GDP data for the current fiscal year is yet to be released, he indicated that the economy had gained momentum and made significant improvements. Consequently, the SBP has maintained its GDP growth projection for FY27 between 3.5 to 4.5 percent. He also noted that Pakistan's external debt profile had notably improved, with borrowing costs declining and the overall external debt position remaining stable. The SBP had purchased approximately USD 30 billion from the foreign exchange market over the past three years to fortify its reserves, with a significant portion used to meet external debt repayments and other external financing requirements. The improved external position had bolstered confidence in Pakistan's banking system, eliminating the need for letters of credit (LCs) confirmation at the previous high costs of 10 to 12 percent under the current circumstances. Refuting the notion that high interest rates were the primary cause of sluggish export growth, Governor Ahmed explained that exporters faced diverse short-term and long-term challenges such as higher business costs, demand pressures, and global competition. However, he affirmed that the SBP and government are implementing various initiatives to stimulate exports, including performance-based financial incentives.\n\nAddressing concerns about the lack of export growth, the Governor SBP attributed the rising remittances not solely to an increase in workers' migration abroad. He pointed out that overseas worker migration peaked at around 900,000 people in 2015, but declined to approximately 840,000 annually over the last two years. Despite this declining trend, remittance inflows persistently increased. He attributed the rise in remittances to several factors, including a more favorable exchange rate, reduced under-invoicing, stronger border controls, and reforms introduced for exchange companies. He announced that the Pakistan Bank Association (PBA) had recently launched a prize scheme worth Rs16 billion to encourage higher remittances, with the first prize draw scheduled for January 2027. Regarding currency notes, Ahmed stated that the designs would be finalized soon, and the SBP had already arranged for their printing.",
  "summary": "KARACHI: The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has revised its projections for workers’ remittances and foreign exchange reserves upward, reflecting improved inflows and a stronger external account outlook. Addressing a press conference on the monetary policy decision, SBP Governor Jameel Ahmed said Pakistan’s external account position had improved significantly, adding that the country was now out of…",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}