{
  "id": 1662686,
  "title": "USD/CAD Price Forecast: Consolidates below 1.3900 as bears await 200-SMA breakdown",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/18/usd-cad-price-forecast-consolidates-below-1-3900-as-bears-await-200",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-08-18T07:03:28.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "FXStreet",
    "slug": "fxstreet",
    "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-consolidates-below-13900-as-bears-await-200-sma-breakdown-202608180703"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The USD/CAD currency pair remains stagnant near the 1.3870-1.3875 range on Tuesday, unable to build on the overnight recovery from its lowest point since mid-June. The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support proves a hurdle for the pair as it remains within a confined trading range. Crude oil prices surge to a two-week peak amid the escalating US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, aiding the Canadian Dollar (CAD) linked to commodity trade. However, the pair's progress is hampered by the robust recovery of the US Dollar (USD), driven by expectations of at least one rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, fueled by oil-induced inflation concerns. Technical indicators further point towards bearish sentiment, with the Relative Strength Index (14) in oversold territory and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator displaying negative readings. The pair has also tested the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June rally, further solidifying the bearish outlook. Nonetheless, a decisive break below the 200-day SMA at 1.3848 is required to substantiate the potential for a descent to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3822. Should this occur, the 78.6% level at 1.3708 and the subsequent fall towards the structural support near 1.3562 could unfold. Conversely, the upside resistance lies at the 50.0% retracement at 1.3902, followed by the 38.2% level at 1.3982 and the 23.6% retracement at 1.4081. The ultimate distance barrier for the pair is the cycle high at 1.4242. The Canadian Dollar's valuation is heavily influenced by the Bank of Canada's interest rate decisions, the price of oil as the country's largest export, economic health, inflation levels, and the trade balance. Other crucial factors include market sentiment, the health of the US economy, and Bank of Canada policies, such as quantitative easing or tightening, which can have a CAD-positive or CAD-negative effect.",
  "summary": "The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from its lowest level since June 3, around the 1.3845 zone, also representing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support, and oscillates in a narrow band on Tuesday.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 2,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "FXStreet",
        "title": "Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $65.50 amid US-Iran peace uncertainty",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/08/18/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-falls-to-near-65-50-amid-us-iran-peace",
        "published": "2026-08-18T02:08:51.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}