{
  "id": 16541600,
  "title": "G-Sec yields at three-year peak, could climb to 7.75% by December",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/26/g-sec-yields-at-three-year-peak-could-climb-to-7-75-by-december",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-26T01:05:24.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "The Economic Times - Top News",
    "slug": "the-economic-times-top-news",
    "url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/bonds/g-sec-yields-at-three-year-peak-could-climb-to-7-75-by-december/articleshow/135200262.cms"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Mumbai: India's 10-year government bond yield is reaching levels last seen during the 2022-23 tightening cycle, with traders warning of potential yields reaching 7.75% by December. The benchmark yield settled at 7.47% on Friday, its highest since March 2023. The yield has increased by 78 basis points over the last four months, nearing the 7.61% peak during the previous rate-hike cycle. Bankers attribute the selloff to a mix of external and domestic factors, with crude oil being the primary concern for bond investors. Foreign portfolio investors have sold ₹20,772 crore from Indian debt so far this fiscal year, according to NSDL data. Rajeev Pawar, head of treasury at Ujjivan Small Finance Bank, predicts the 10-year yield to touch 7.75% by December, considering the rate differential between India and the US justifies higher yields and the current market struggling with heavy bond supply, liquidity draining, and rising crude oil prices. Brent crude futures have surged to $116.72 a barrel, their highest since April, raising concerns over inflation and the current account deficit as India imports most of its crude oil requirements. Market assumptions about the temporary disruptions from the US-Iran conflict have shifted to fears that elevated oil prices may persist through year-end, keeping inflation risks alive and delaying any meaningful decline in bond yields. Treasury dealers emphasize that the market's earlier view that the US-Iran conflict disruptions would be temporary has given way to concerns that high oil prices could persist through the year-end, maintaining inflation risks and delaying any significant reduction in bond yields. This issue is not limited to India; it is a combined oil and treasury shock spreading across emerging markets, according to Tanuj Khosla, MD at InCred Global Asset Management.",
  "summary": "India's benchmark 10-year government bond yield is expected to reach 7.75% by December. This increase is influenced by high crude oil prices and tight liquidity conditions. Persistent bond supply and expectations of further monetary tightening are driving the yield higher. Foreign portfolio investors have sold significant amounts of Indian debt, contributing to market instability. Economic…",
  "key_points": [
    "India's 10-year bond yield hits three-year high at 7.47%",
    "Selloff attributed to crude oil prices, foreign portfolio investors",
    "Analyst predicts 10-year yield could reach 7.75% by December"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}