{
  "id": 16477282,
  "title": "The nuclear danger at sea",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/25/the-nuclear-danger-at-sea",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-10-25T13:12:16.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Dawn",
    "slug": "dawn",
    "url": "https://www.dawn.com/news/2039724/the-nuclear-danger-at-sea"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The October 23 editorial highlighted concerns over India's nuclear-armed submarines, emphasizing that the danger extends beyond a single vessel. It discussed the burgeoning nuclear force, advanced strike capabilities, missile defense systems, and an increasing confidence in initiating military action. The article questioned the notion that these advancements provide a first-strike advantage or create a safe space for war. Pakistan, with its capability and determination, sought to maintain the strategic balance. Retired Lt-Gen Mazhar Jamil, the National Command Authority's adviser, warned that continuous at-sea deterrence weakens India's declared no-first-use policy, implying an offensive posture. Unannounced submarine-launched ballistic missile tests with operational weapons aboard submarines heighten the risks of miscalculation and escalation. Pakistan reserves the right to take all necessary measures to safeguard its security and regional balance. At the Islamabad Non-Proliferation Conference, retired Lt-Gen Khalid Kidwai echoed this concern, stating that Pakistan would review its options if India attempted to impose strategic imbalance. In 2026, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimated India's nuclear stockpile at 190 warheads, 12 of which were deployed on a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine for occasional deterrence patrols. The estimate was later found to be incorrect, and India currently operates three operational ballistic missile submarines (SSBN), with a fourth expected in 2027. The four SSBNs will have a combined capacity to launch missiles carrying up to 72 warheads from 24 tubes by the following year. The article emphasized that India's no-first-use pledge must be evaluated considering its capabilities and political conduct. General Kidwai's assessment of a possible 'zero notice' strike should be viewed in this context. Pakistan has never surrendered its deterrence capability to India's routine modernization. Strategic stability hinges on a credible balance, and Pakistan will uphold it under all circumstances. General Zubair Hayat, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, argued that the old international order is changing without a fair replacement, leading to strategic exemptions for favored states and alarm over neighboring countries' balancing measures, which does not foster equal security. The nuclearization of the Indian Ocean did not start with Pakistan's concerns; it began with India's risky decisions, enabled and fueled by an international tendency to view these ambitions as benign. Pakistan's response to India's actions in May 2025, following the Marka-i-Haq incident, demonstrated the danger of assuming India's actions were benign. The Indian Air Force grounded itself, and the Indian Navy's carrier strike group hastily retreated, while a ceasefire followed Islamabad's response and New Delhi's call for third-party mediation. The article concluded by warning that emerging technologies and great-power competition threaten nuclear stability, citing the 2022 BrahMos launch into Pakistan. A supersonic nuclear-capable missile crossed the border in peacetime, and India waited nearly two days before acknowledging it, refusing Pakistan's joint inquiry request and maintaining escalation risks. Three years later, India employed BrahMos against another nuclear power for the first time, further escalating the risk. The sea-leg of India's nuclear triad and dual-capable missiles, along with its Hindutva-inflected policy of hegemony and coercion, underscore the need for Pakistan to maintain its Full Spectrum Deterrence.",
  "summary": "Dawn’s October 23 editorial rightly warned about India’s nuclear-armed submarine patrols. The danger is larger than a new vessel at sea. It is a sea-based nuclear force growing alongside precision-strike capabilities, missile defence and a false confidence in initiating military action. Imagining that these developments confer a first-strike advantage or create a safe space for war is imprudent.…",
  "key_points": [
    "India's nuclear stockpile estimated at 190 warheads, 12 on SSBNs",
    "Pakistan maintains Full Spectrum Deterrence, rejects India's strategic imbalance",
    "Emerging technologies and great-power competition threaten nuclear stability"
  ],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}