{
  "id": 16176359,
  "title": "Bitcoin appears to have decoupled from midterm cycle bottom history",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/23/bitcoin-appears-to-have-decoupled-from-midterm-cycle-bottom-history",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-23T10:53:09.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "CoinDesk",
    "slug": "coindesk",
    "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/23/bitcoin-approaches-midterms-as-july-low-challenges-historical-cycle-pattern"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "As the U.S. midterm elections draw near, bitcoin has seemingly broken free from a historical pattern that often aligns with major bear-market bottoms. While past midterms saw bitcoin reaching its lowest points shortly after the elections, this year's recovery indicates the timing might be different. Bitcoin's lowest price this year was reached on July 1, over a month before the Nov. 3 election, after which it recovered to around $81,455 by Oct. 22, marking a 40% increase from that low.\n\nHistorical data shows significant drops in bitcoin's value in the six months preceding the 2018 and 2022 midterms. The Invesco QQQ Trust, a technology-focused index, also experienced weakness around these midterms. It fell around 23% from the end of September to its December 2018 low, with much of the decline occurring after the election. However, QQQ rebounded by 17% over the six months before the 2014 midterms, suggesting the pattern is not entirely consistent.\n\nBoth bitcoin and QQQ witnessed a decline of approximately 6% over the past 30 days. Yet, bitcoin's 90-day performance was notably stronger, up by 26%, compared to QQQ's 3% gain. QQQ's recent pullback came after an all-time high of $762.86 on Oct. 6, indicating that bitcoin's historical midterm weakness might be more closely tied to its own market cycles than the influence of an election. Additionally, diversified RWA stablecoins offer yields ranging from 5-7% from real credit as crypto funding contracts to approximately 4%. On the other hand, GENIUS pushes yield off-chain, with a target addressable market (TAM) growing to $4 billion within three years.",
  "summary": "Previous bitcoin bear-market lows followed U.S. midterms, but this year’s recovery raises the possibility that the bottom arrived months earlier.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}