{
  "id": 16043444,
  "title": "Israel Election 2026: Pollster Shmuel Rosner says Israelis have already made up their minds",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/22/israel-election-2026-pollster-shmuel-rosner-says-israelis-have",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-10-22T12:43:15.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Jerusalem Post",
    "slug": "jerusalem-post",
    "url": "https://www.jpost.com/podcast/article-912563"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "As the Israeli election draws to a close, pollster Shmuel Rosner asserts that the majority of Israelis have already decided how they will vote. In an interview on The Deep Dive, Rosner, a JPPI senior fellow and Channel 13 election pollster, dismisses any possibility that President Trump's recent endorsement could sway the outcome. He explains that since the judicial overhaul dispute in 2023, the October 7 attack, and the ongoing conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, most Israelis have a clear preference.\n\nRosner believes Netanyahu's last-minute push is not aimed at securing 61 seats but rather as a defensive strategy to prevent the opposition from forming a viable government. A minority government with a 57-50 majority is significantly different from one based on 52-51 votes, according to Rosner. He also discusses how President Herzog's efforts to unite the rival camps may not be as effective as many Israelis hope.\n\nWhen considering a potential post-election power-sharing arrangement, Rosner suggests a plea deal that would allow Netanyahu to step aside, but this option is unlikely to appeal to most Israelis. He dismisses the notion that a post-election clash with Iran could force the opposition into a coalition, pointing out that this strategy has failed twice before, once with Benny Gantz and again following the October 7 attack.\n\nRosner strongly defends Israel's electoral system, stating that it remains one of the few institutions the public still trusts. He strongly condemns leaders who spread false claims about the voting process, warning that such actions could endanger the country's democracy. He also speculates that the significance of this election will be determined by its outcome, and that the stakes are not equal for both sides. For opposition voters, a second term for the current coalition could pose a crisis of identity and attachment to their nation.",
  "summary": "Shmuel Rosner, a JPPI senior fellow and Channel 13 election pollster, argues that Netanyahu's late blitz is not a play for 61 seats, but a move to stop the opposition from forming a coalition.",
  "key_points": [
    "Most Israelis have decided their vote, according to pollster Shmuel Rosner",
    "Netanyahu's last-minute push aims to prevent opposition from forming a viable government",
    "Potential power-sharing deal unlikely to appeal to most Israelis"
  ],
  "editors_take": "The deep-seated political divisions following recent conflicts mean that external endorsements and last-minute strategies are unlikely to shift the electorate's established preferences before the polls close.",
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 2,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "The Times of Israel",
        "title": "The missing ‘peace’ in Israel’s election campaign",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/22/the-missing-peace-in-israels-election-campaign",
        "published": "2026-10-22T11:21:55.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}