{
  "id": 16029991,
  "title": "Explained: Why El Niño rains have delayed",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/22/explained-why-el-nino-rains-have-delayed",
  "topic": "world",
  "section": "World",
  "published": "2026-10-22T10:43:03.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "People Daily Kenya",
    "slug": "people-daily-kenya",
    "url": "https://peopledaily.digital/news/explained-why-el-nino-rains-have-delayed"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Kenyans anticipating the October-December rains may face continued dry weather as atmospheric conditions over the Indian Ocean hinder the movement of rain-bearing systems across the nation. The Kenya Meteorological Department attributes this delay to low-pressure systems emerging over the northern Indian Ocean, which have temporarily slowed the southward progression of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a key contributor to rainfall during the short-rains season. In an interview on October 21, 2026, Kenya Met Director of Public Weather Services Hannah Kimani elaborated on how these changing weather patterns disrupted the anticipated spread of rainfall to various regions of the country. According to Kimani, \"During October to December, the Intertropical Convergence Zone brings us rainfall when it is moving from the north to the southern hemisphere,\" but low-pressure systems over the Indian Ocean have temporarily halted this southward movement. Rainfall onset varied, with some areas receiving early rains as early as September while others saw the onset in the first week of October. Central and eastern Kenya, however, experienced a notable delay in receiving the expected rainfall. Kimani explained that the Indian Ocean, which provides the moisture necessary for rainfall, did not develop the necessary conditions to sustain the expected rains in certain areas. Consequently, regions like Mandera, Marsabit, Nyeri, and Meru have witnessed the onset of rainfall as expected, illustrating how seasonal forecasts do not guarantee simultaneous rainfall across all parts of the country. Despite high expectations due to the strengthened El Niño conditions projected to enhance rainfall in East Africa, the uneven distribution of rain underscores that atmospheric circulation, moisture availability, and weather system movement significantly impact when and where rainfall occurs. The Kenya Meteorological Department is closely monitoring a potential tropical storm in the Indian Ocean, which could influence the country's rainfall patterns, though its ultimate impact will depend on its trajectory. Kimani cautioned that tropical storms could either bring rain or divert rain-bearing systems away from Kenya, depending on their path. She noted that the department's last weekly forecast indicated potential rainfall in pockets of the country towards the weekend. For now, the return of widespread rainfall remains uncertain, and residents are advised to adhere to official weather updates as conditions continue to evolve.",
  "summary": "Kenyans waiting for the October-December rains may have to contend with continued dry weather as atmospheric conditions over the Indian Ocean disrupt the movement of rain-bearing systems across the country. The Kenya Meteorological Department says low-pressure systems developing over the northern Indian Ocean temporarily slowed the southward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ),…",
  "key_points": [
    "El Niño rains delayed by low-pressure systems over Indian Ocean",
    "Intertropical Convergence Zone slowed southward progression",
    "Central and eastern Kenya experienced notable rainfall delay"
  ],
  "editors_take": "Disruptions in Indian Ocean atmospheric pressure transform predictable seasonal patterns into a fragmented reality where El Niño's expected moisture fails to reach all Kenyan regions simultaneously.",
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}