{
  "id": 16007128,
  "title": "IMF sees 1.3% contraction in Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan in 2026",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/22/imf-sees-1-3-contraction-in-middle-east-north-africa-and-pakistan-in",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-22T06:12:40.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Investing.com",
    "slug": "investing-com",
    "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/imf-sees-13-contraction-in-middle-east-north-africa-and-pakistan-in-2026-4964654"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted a significant contraction in economic output across the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan in 2026, with a drop of 1.3%. This downturn is primarily attributed to the ongoing war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which has adversely affected energy production, shipping, tourism, trade, and overall confidence in the region. However, the IMF anticipates a rapid rebound, with economic output expected to surge by 6.6% in 2027.\n\nThe war's impact has been particularly severe on oil-exporting economies, as these nations face direct disruptions to energy production and shipping routes. In contrast, oil-importing countries have demonstrated relative resilience, bolstered by factors such as domestic demand, remittances, tourism flows, favorable financial conditions, and prompt policy responses aimed at protecting consumers from soaring commodity prices.\n\nDespite the forecasted recovery, the IMF cautions that further disruptions in energy production and trade routes could exacerbate the situation, leading to higher energy prices. Additionally, external financial conditions could tighten if investors reassess AI-driven productivity gains and interest rates continue to rise amidst growing concerns over inflation and fiscal positions.\n\nLooking ahead, the Caucasus and Central Asia regions are projected to experience a more moderate growth rate, with economic output expected to rise by 5.2% in 2026 and 5% in 2027. The IMF emphasizes the importance of policymakers maintaining price stability, safeguarding fiscal sustainability, preserving central bank independence, and implementing structural reforms to boost productivity and generate employment opportunities.",
  "summary": null,
  "key_points": [
    "IMF predicts 1.3% contraction in MENA and Pakistan in 2026",
    "War between US, Israel, Iran causes energy, shipping, tourism, trade disruptions",
    "Economic output expected to rebound 6.6% in 2027"
  ],
  "editors_take": "Regional geopolitical conflict creates a volatile cycle of contraction and recovery that disproportionately threatens oil exporters while testing the resilience of importers through disrupted trade and energy production.",
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 3,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "Free Malaysia Today",
        "title": "IMF sees 1.3% contraction in Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan in 2026",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/22/imf-sees-1-3-contraction-in-middle-east-north-africa-and-pakistan-in-16011284",
        "published": "2026-10-22T06:25:00.000Z"
      },
      {
        "outlet": "Business Recorder",
        "title": "IMF flags rising inflation risks for Pakistan amid Middle East conflict",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/22/imf-flags-rising-inflation-risks-for-pakistan-amid-middle-east",
        "published": "2026-10-22T07:45:55.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}