{
  "id": 15951778,
  "title": "Billionaires fleeing California could turn a $30 billion tax windfall into a $39 billion loss, Stanford economists warn",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/21/billionaires-fleeing-california-could-turn-a-30-billion-tax-windfall",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-21T20:42:26.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Fortune",
    "slug": "fortune",
    "url": "https://fortune.com/2026/10/21/california-billionaire-tax-prop-40-stanford-study-39-billion-loss/"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "Two Stanford economists have warned that California's proposed billionaire tax could result in a $39 billion loss for the state, despite initial projections of raising $100 billion. The tax, if passed, would impose a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of California's few hundred billionaires who were residents on Jan. 1, 2026. The researchers estimate the tax could only collect around $30 billion, accounting for a range of $28 billion to $36 billion. They attribute the difference in projections to billionaires moving out of the state to avoid the tax. Seven well-known billionaires, including Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, have publicly left California, accounting for roughly $540 billion in wealth. The researchers also factor in the risk of courts striking down the tax, leading to a sharper downgrade from their earlier estimate of $40 billion in revenue and a $25 billion net loss for the state. The estimated $30 billion revenue could be outweighed by $38.9 billion in lost income tax revenue over time if billionaire departures continue. Critics argue the losses won't last indefinitely, citing a separate study that suggests it would take 25 years for accumulated income tax losses to match the proposed tax windfall.",
  "summary": "Departures have already erased nearly 30% of Prop 40’s tax base, a new NBER paper estimates. The tax’s architects say the math assumes losses that won’t last.",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}