{
  "id": 15858129,
  "title": "Australian dollar extends rally, market narrows odds on hike",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/21/australian-dollar-extends-rally-market-narrows-odds-on-hike",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-21T06:23:13.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "Business Recorder",
    "slug": "business-recorder",
    "url": "https://www.brecorder.com/news/40445258/australian-dollar-extends-rally-market-narrows-odds-on-hike"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "The Australian dollar is dancing higher for a fourth consecutive day on Wednesday, as US yields slide and investors reduce the probability of another domestic interest rate increase following a stern tone from a central banker. The Aussie currency climbed 0.1% to $0.7011, after a 0.3% surge overnight to reach $0.7017. Resistance is expected around $0.7045, with support found at $0.6895. Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar dipped slightly to $0.5676, after gaining 0.4% overnight, pushing up against resistance at $0.5700, and support at the recent 18-month low of $0.5566. Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser stated that stricter monetary policy is working, but the outlook for inflation remains \"materially worse,\" partly due to soaring oil prices. Hauser stressed the importance of anchoring inflation expectations prior to the RBA’s November 3 board meeting, where they will deliberate on potentially raising rates for a fifth time this year. Market sentiment has shifted, with the likelihood of a November rate hike climbing to 44%, up from 30% at the beginning of the week, while a December hike has risen to a 64% chance. Consumer price data from the third quarter are expected next week, with analysts anticipating core inflation to surge between 0.9% and 1.0%, pushing the annual rate to 3.5% and significantly above the RBA’s target range of 2% to 3%. Hauser confirmed that it is \"pretty clear\" inflation outcomes will likely exceed the RBA’s own projections. New Zealand's consumer price figures are released on Thursday, with forecasts indicating a 0.8% rise in the third quarter, which could cause the annual inflation rate to soften to 3.8% from 4.1%. However, recent surges in fuel costs and airfares suggest inflation could escalate further this quarter and surpass the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s forecast of 3.9%. Markets indicate a near 90% likelihood that the central bank will increase its official cash rate (OCR) by a quarter point to 3.0% during its upcoming meeting, and maintain rates at 3.75% for the following year. Economists at ASB warned that \"higher for longer inflation\" poses a significant challenge for the RBNZ, as it could push inflation expectations upward. The analysts anticipate rates topping out at 3.25% by the end of the year, but are wary of a higher OCR in 2027.",
  "summary": "SYDNEY: The Australian dollar was looking to rally for a fourth session on Wednesday as US yields declined and investors narrowed the odds of another interest rate hike at home after hawkish comments from a central banker. The Aussie firmed 0.1% to $0.7011, having risen 0.3% overnight to as far as $0.7017. Resistance lies around $0.7045, with support at $0.6895. The kiwi dollar eased a fraction…",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 1,
    "also_reported_by": []
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}