{
  "id": 15857466,
  "title": "A 2027 turning point? Goldman, Citi see stabilising signs in China’s housing market",
  "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/21/a-2027-turning-point-goldman-citi-see-stabilising-signs-in-chinas",
  "topic": "finance",
  "section": "Finance & Markets",
  "published": "2026-10-21T07:15:17.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "SCMP Business",
    "slug": "scmp-business",
    "url": "https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3371618/2027-turning-point-goldman-citi-see-stabilising-signs-chinas-housing-market"
  },
  "original_language": "en",
  "account": "As China's housing market continues to struggle, global investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Citi foresee a significant shift in the sector by 2027. Their optimism stems from a combination of factors, including shrinking housing supply and strong sales during the National Day holiday in early October. Citi, specifically, views 2027 as a crucial turning point for home price recovery in major Chinese cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen.\n\nHistorically, China's home prices reached a low point in June 2024, according to Citi's analysis. In a recent report, Citi Research analyst Griffin Chan noted that while further confirmation is needed to declare a sustained recovery, the signs of stabilizing home prices are increasingly evident, particularly in top-tier cities. Shanghai particularly stood out, becoming the first city to record positive year-on-year growth in secondary home prices in September, with a modest 0.8% increase.\n\nChan also highlighted the impact of policy packages in lifting home price expectations and boosting demand for higher-end housing. Similar bullish sentiments were echoed by HSBC in a separate report earlier this month. The bank reported robust secondary market transactions and persistent price pressure, suggesting that genuine demand remains resilient despite buyers' price sensitivity.\n\nAdding another layer of potential change, Goldman Sachs forecasted four key turning points for China's housing market through 2035. The bank's analysis is based on a new sales model introduced by Chinese government regulators on August 28, which prioritizes completed home sales on newly sold land. Goldman Sachs also cautioned that the supply of saleable primary market housing estates in China is projected to decline sharply in 2028 and continue to diminish in the years to follow. Furthermore, land sales are expected to experience an accelerated decline starting in 2031, while new housing starts and property fixed-asset investment are anticipated to see a turnaround in 2032. The bank predicts that structural demand will continue to decline from 2030 onwards.",
  "summary": "As China’s housing market downturn enters its fifth year, global investment banks including Goldman Sachs and Citi say they expect the sector to pivot as soon as 2027, with expectations fuelled by signs of shrinking supply and robust sales over the National Day holiday in early October. Citi holds a positive view on the sector and saw 2027 as a pivotal year for home price recovery in Beijing,…",
  "key_points": [],
  "editors_take": null,
  "illustration": null,
  "coverage": {
    "outlets": 2,
    "also_reported_by": [
      {
        "outlet": "Fortune",
        "title": "Goldman sees a housing freeze through 2027. It would lock in an economic divide between millennials",
        "url": "https://urgent.news/2026/10/20/goldman-sees-a-housing-freeze-through-2027-it-would-lock-in-an",
        "published": "2026-10-20T18:36:57.000Z"
      }
    ]
  },
  "ai_generated": true,
  "disclaimer": "Summaries, key points and the editor’s take are written by software from other outlets’ reporting and may contain errors — always check the linked original."
}